IBGE estimates harvest of 325,3 million tons for 2025

In January, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2025 should total 325,3 million tons, 11,1% higher than that obtained in 2024 (292,7 million tons with an increase of 32,6 million tons; and 0,8% above that reported in December, with an increase of 2,7 million tons. The area to be harvested was 80,9 million hectares, an increase of 2,4% compared to the area harvested in 2024, with an increase of 1,8 million hectares, and an increase of 0,6% (472.102 hectares) compared to December.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together account for 92,9% of the estimated production and account for 87,5% of the area to be harvested. Compared to the previous year, there were increases of 2,9% in the area to be harvested for upland cotton (seed); 6,7% for paddy rice; 0,6% for beans; 2,8% for soybeans; 2,1% for corn (a decline of 1,4% for 1st corn crop and an increase of 3,0% for 2nd corn crop) and 2,7% for sorghum, with a decline of 2,6% for wheat.

In relation to production, there were increases of 1,6% for herbaceous cotton (seed); 8,3% for rice; 10,9% for beans, 14,9% for soybeans, 8,2% for corn (growth of 10,0% for 1st corn crop and 7,8% for 2nd corn crop), 5,4% for sorghum, as well as a decrease of 3,3% for wheat.

The January estimate for soybeans was 166,5 million tons. As for corn, the estimate was 124,1 million tons (25,2 million tons of corn in the 1st harvest and 98,9 million tons of corn in the 2nd harvest). Rice production was estimated at 11,5 million tons; that of wheat at 7,3 million tons; that of herbaceous cotton (seed) at 9,0 million tons; and sorghum, at 4,2 million tons.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed a positive annual variation for the Central-West (10,1%), South (15,4%), Southeast (10,8%), Northeast (9,8%) and North (3,6%) regions. Regarding the monthly variation, production increased in the North (0,1%), Northeast (0,1%) and Central-West (2,7%) regions. The Southeast region remained stable, while the South region declined (-1,6%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 29,7%, followed by Paraná (13,4%), Rio Grande do Sul (12,4%), Goiás (11,1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7,8%) and Minas Gerais (5,4%), which, together, represented 79,8% of the total. Regarding regional participation, there is the following distribution: Central-West (48.9%), South (27,8%), Southeast (8,8%), Northeast (8,7%) and North (5,8 .XNUMX%).

Highlights in the January 2025 estimate compared to the previous month 

Compared to December, there were increases in the production estimates for sorghum (8,9% or 341 t), third-crop potatoes (793% or 3 t), first-crop beans (5,0% or 42 t), second-crop corn (246% or 1 t), third-crop beans (4,7% or 54 t), tomatoes (579% or 2 t), barley (3,6% or 3 t), herbaceous cotton – seed (395% or 514 t), first-crop potatoes (3% or 3,4 t), first-crop corn (26% or 722 t), second-crop potatoes (2,1% or 91 134 t), canephora coffee (2,0% or 8 t), and declines in production estimates for wheat (-300% or -1,6 t), second-crop beans (-137% or -530 t), cassava (-1% or -1,5 t), arabica coffee (-30% or -400 t), sugarcane (-1% or -0,7 t) and soybean (-173% or -667 t).

The main positive absolute variations in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso (3 t), Goiás (000 t), the Federal District (592 t), Piauí (1 t), Pará (138 t), Tocantins (400 t), Rondônia (25 t), Maranhão (062 t) and Ceará (12 t), while the negative variation occurred in Paraná (-764 t).

Herbaceous cotton (in seed) – the estimate for cotton production is 9,0 million tons. In relation to the 3rd forecast, there was a 1,6% growth in the production estimate, due to the larger cultivated area (1,3%). Mato Grosso, the largest Brazilian producer, expected to participate with 70,2% of the national total, should present a production of 6,3 million tons, a harvest practically the same as in 2024 and, which presented a growth of 1,4% in relation to the last survey, with emphasis on the increase in the planted area, of 1,2%.

English potato – production, considering the three harvests of the product, should reach 4,4 million tons, an increase of 1,7% in relation to the third forecast. Highlight for Goiás, which had its production estimate increased by 25,2% in relation to the 3rd forecast, and should reach production of 264,2 thousand tons. The 1st harvest should contribute with 47,5% of the total potato to be produced in the year. The estimated production was 2,1 million tons, an increase of 1,5% in relation to the 3rd forecast, a result influenced by the numbers from Paraná, an increase of 4,2%, since the other producing Federation Units maintained the numbers of the 3rd forecast.

The 2nd harvest, which represents 32,5% of total production, was estimated at 1,4 million tons, an increase of 0,2% compared to the 3rd forecast, with the average yield estimate remaining stable and the area to be harvested increasing by 0,2%. Compared to the previous year, the estimate for this harvest is 5,6% lower, with the planted area being reduced by 7,1% and the average yield increasing by 1,5%.

For the 3rd harvest, the first production estimate for 2025 was 5,0% higher than that of the 3rd forecast, reaching 884,2 thousand tons. Only Goiás updated the numbers of this first survey for 2025, with its production estimate growing 20,0% compared to the previous month. The production of the 3rd potato harvest is expected to account for 20,0% of the national total.

Coffee (in beans) - Brazilian production, considering both species, Arabica and Canephora, was estimated at 3,2 million tons, or 52,6 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 1,1% compared to the previous month, with the average yield declining by 2,8% and the harvested area growing by 1,7%. In comparison with 2024, the production estimate declines by 7,9%, due to the reductions of 2,6% in the area to be harvested and 5,4% in the average yield.

For Arabica coffee, the estimated production was 2,1 million tons or 34,9 million 60 kg bags, a decline of 1,7% compared to the previous month and 12,7% compared to the volume produced in 2024. For the 2025 harvest, a negative biennial is expected, that is, a natural decline in production due to the physiological characteristics of the species, in which in even-numbered years there is a tendency to produce more, sacrificing the production of the following year, due to greater exhaustion of the plants.

For canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1,1 million tons or 17,7 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 3,4% compared to the volume produced in 2024, with increases of 0,5% in the area to be harvested and 2,9% in the average yield.

Sugar cane – the production estimate was 706,9 million tons, a decline of 1,3% compared to the previous month, influenced by the smaller planted area (-1,3%), which should reach 9,3 million hectares. São Paulo, responsible for the production of 365,6 million tons, which represents 51,7% of the national production, maintained its estimates.

Winter cereal (grain) – the main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. For wheat (grain), estimated production reached 7,3 million tons, a decline of 7,7% compared to the previous month and 3,3% compared to 2024. In recent years, the climate in the South Region has not been favorable to winter crops.

Oat production (in grain) was estimated at 1,1 million tonnes, a decline of 0,2% compared to the volume harvested in 2024. Average yield grew by 4,1%, while the planted area and the area to be harvested declined by 5,1% and 4,2%, respectively. The largest producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 852,6 thousand tonnes, a growth of 5,4% compared to the volume harvested in 2024, with increases of 2,6% in the area to be harvested and 2,7% in average yield; and Paraná, with 167,0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0,3% compared to 2024.

For barley (grain), the estimated production was 418,8 thousand tons, an increase of 2,0% compared to December and growth of 0,6% compared to the previous year. The planted area shows an increase of 1.6%, while the average yield declined 1,0% in the last comparison. The largest barley producers are Paraná, with 296,2 thousand tons, an increase of 2,9% compared to December and growth of 3,1% compared to 2024, and should participate with 70,7% in the 2025 Brazilian harvest, and Rio Grande do Sul, with a production of 102,9 thousand tons, a decrease of 5,7% compared to the volume produced in 2024. The production of Rio Grande do Sul should represent 24,6% of the total barley produced in 2025 by the country.

Beans (in grain) – the estimate for bean production, considering the three harvests, should reach 3,4 million tons, an increase of 1,5% in relation to the 3rd forecast and 10,9% over the 2024 harvest. This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption in 2025, with no need to import the product.

The estimated production of the 1st bean harvest was 1,2 million tons, representing 35,6% of the national share among the three harvests, 4,7% higher than the 3rd forecast. In this comparison, there was an increase of 1,0% in the area to be harvested and of 3,6% in the average yield. In Paraná, the largest Brazilian producer of beans in the 1st harvest, with a share of 27,9% of the total and an estimated production of 341,7 thousand tons, there was growth of 3,7% compared to the 3rd forecast and of 113,0% compared to the volume produced in 2024.

The 2nd bean harvest was estimated at 1,4 million tons, corresponding to 41,0% of the share among the three harvests. In comparison with the 3rd forecast, there was a 2,2% reduction in the production estimate, due to the 1,4% decrease in the area to be harvested and the 0,8% decrease in the estimate for the average yield.

Regarding the 3rd bean harvest, the production estimate for January was 801,7 thousand tons, an increase of 3,4% compared to the 3rd forecast. Of the nine states producing this harvest, eight maintained the figures from the 3rd forecast. There was an increase in the production estimate in Goiás (12,6%), due to the 12,4% increase in the area to be harvested. It is worth noting that Goiás and Minas Gerais are those that contribute the most to this bean harvest, corresponding to 30,4% of the share (243,8 thousand tons) and 25,4% (203,8 thousand tons), respectively.

Cassava (roots) - production is expected to reach 20,3 million tons, a decline of 2,0% compared to the previous month and growth of 6,4% compared to the volume produced in 2024, with increases of 3,1% in the area to be harvested and 3,2% in the average yield. The largest declines in the production estimate compared to the previous month were reported by Pará (-7,2% or -328,9 thousand tons) and Goiás (-29,1% or -49,5 thousand tons), both reflecting a reduction in the area to be harvested with the product.

Corn (grain) – corn production was estimated at 124,1 million tons, an increase of 3,0% compared to the 3rd forecast (December) and 8,2% compared to the volume produced in 2024. The area to be harvested increased by 2,1%, as did the average yield, which grew by 6,0% in this comparison, and is expected to reach 5 kg/ha. In 697, cereal production was affected by climate problems in several producing Federation Units, and is expected to recover in 2024.

The first corn crop had an estimated production of 1 million tons, an increase of 25,2% compared to December and 0,7% compared to the volume produced at the same time in 10,0. The planted area, in the current crop, should fall by 2024%, while the yield should grow by 2,6%, due to the climate that has benefited crops in most producing Federation Units.

The production of the 2nd corn crop showed growth of 3,6% in relation to the 3rd forecast (December) and of 7,8% in relation to the volume produced at the same time in 2024. In relation to December, there were increases of 1,8% in the area to be harvested and of 1,7% in the average yield. As for the previous year, there was growth of 3,0% in the area to be harvested and of 4,6% in the average yield.

Soybeans (in grain) – National production is expected to reach 166,5 million tons in 2025, an increase of 14,9% compared to the amount obtained in the previous year, setting a new record in national production. In this survey, there was a monthly retraction of 0,6% in the average yield and 0,4% in the production estimate, which represented a decrease of 750,2 thousand tons. Even so, it is estimated that we will have an increase of 11,7% in the average annual yield, which should reach 3 kg/ha, contributing to the harvested volume of the oilseed representing more than half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 519.

Sorghum (grain) – the January estimate for sorghum production was 4,2 million tons, representing an increase of 8,9% compared to December and 5,4% compared to the 2024 harvest. The national average yield of 3 kg/ha was relevant to this positive performance, with increases of 074% in the annual comparison and 2,6% in the monthly comparison, as well as the expansion of areas, planted and to be harvested. Sorghum is expected to occupy 4,9 million hectares, corresponding to 1,4% of the areas allocated to cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the 1,7 harvest, and a 2025% share of this production.

Tomato - the production estimate was 4,5 million tons, an increase of 2,1% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 3,8% compared to the volume produced in 2024. In the monthly comparison, there was an increase of 3,5% in the area to be harvested and a decline of 1,4% in the average yield. The largest tomato producers are Goiás, with 1,5 million tons or 32,8% of the national total; São Paulo, with 1,1 million tons and a share of 24,0%; and Minas Gerais, with 557,6 thousand tons and a share of 12,4%.