IBGE: Brazilian grain harvest expected to break record in 2025

Brazil is expected to harvest a record grain crop in 2025. According to the March estimate released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 327,6 million tons, an increase of 11,9% compared to the 2024 harvest. The increase is equivalent to 34,9 million tons more in the field. Compared to the February data, the result represents an increase of 1,2%, or 3,9 million tons.

The total area to be harvested also grew, reaching 81 million hectares — an increase of 2,5% compared to the previous year.

The main production products continue to be soybeans, corn and rice, which together account for 92,6% of the total forecast volume. Soybeans lead with an estimated 164,3 million tons. Corn follows with 127,3 million, 25,5 million from the first harvest and 101,8 million from the second. Rice is expected to reach 11,9 million tons.

Producing regions and states

The Central-West remains the main producing region, with 50,5% of national production, followed by the South (25,9%) and Southeast (9%). Mato Grosso is, once again, the state that contributes the most to the national harvest, with 30,9% of the total, followed by Paraná (13,7%) and Goiás (11,7%).

Monthly highlights and changes

Compared to February, some products showed significant growth in production estimates. This is the case for barley, with an increase of 29,7%, third-crop potatoes (3%) and wheat (18,0%). Soybeans, although slightly down 12,5%, still lead national production.

Among the states, the largest absolute increases occurred in Mato Grosso (+4,7 million tons), Goiás (+1,2 million) and Paraná (+708 thousand). On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul had the largest drop, with a reduction of 3,7 million tons.

Trending products

In addition to traditional grains, other crops also stood out. Coffee production (arabica and canephora) was estimated at 3,2 million tons — around 53,8 million bags — an increase of 1,8% compared to February. Potato production also rose 4,3% compared to the previous month, with emphasis on the third crop, which is expected to grow 18%.

Wheat, a typical winter cereal, showed a strong increase in the March estimate: 8,1 million tons, an increase of 12,5% ​​compared to February and 8,1% over the 2024 production.

Climate scenario and challenges

The climate has played an important role in the results. In states such as Rio Grande do Sul, the 2024 rains contributed to the increase in rice productivity, while sugarcane was harmed by high temperatures and fires, especially in São Paulo, which resulted in a 1,3% drop in national production in the sector.

Expectation for 2025

Based on March data, Brazilian agribusiness is expected to continue to be one of the pillars of the national economy, driven by a robust and diversified harvest. Despite some negative variations, the balance is largely positive and projects a promising 2025 for the field.