High supply puts pressure on soybean and corn prices in January.

Soybean and corn prices ended January lower on both the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the domestic market, according to the February 2026 Monthly Agro report released by Itaú BBA. This movement was mainly influenced by the progress of the South American harvest, a stronger exchange rate, and a comfortable supply environment.

In the case of soybeans, January marked the second consecutive month of decline in Chicago, with a 2,2% drop to USD 10,52 per bushel. The market reacted to the good development of the Brazilian crop and the planting completed in good conditions in Argentina.

In Brazil, the trend was also downward. In Sorriso (MT), the monthly drop brought the average price to R$ 105 per sack, with deals being recorded below R$ 100 at the end of January in some markets in Mato Grosso.

Despite the progress of the harvest — which has reached 17% of the national area, according to Conab, with Mato Grosso (47%), Paraná (14%) and Minas Gerais (13%) standing out — excessive rainfall in the central region of the country has hampered fieldwork. This scenario has also created logistical obstacles, especially in Mato Grosso, where freight costs rose by more than 10% in the second half of the month.

In the international market, Brazilian shipments totaled 1,9 million tons in January, a volume 75% higher than that recorded in the same period last year. For February, the expectation is for exports of 11,8 million tons, almost double the 6,4 million tons shipped in February 2025.

China and the US on the radar

The market remains attentive to the possibility of additional purchases of American soybeans by China. Statements by President Donald Trump have fueled speculation about the acquisition of up to 20 million tons this season and 25 million next season, in addition to a possible extra volume of 8 million tons.

If the purchases are confirmed, the supply and demand balance in the United States could tighten, supporting prices in Chicago. Last week, futures contracts reacted and accumulated a gain of about 50 cents per bushel.

For Brazil, the main impact would be through export premiums, which have already declined due to the rise in CBOT prices. Itaú BBA's assessment is that, from a commercial standpoint, it would not make sense for China to shift purchases from Brazil to the US at this time, in the midst of the Brazilian harvest and with greater price competitiveness.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its estimate for the Brazilian harvest upwards, now projected at 180 million tons. Meanwhile, the US forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged, with exports of 42,9 million tons and ending stocks of 9,5 million tons.

Soybean complex: oil price rises, meal price falls.

In the soybean complex, January was marked by distinct movements. Soybean meal fell 2,5% in Chicago, to an average of USD 294 per ton, while soybean oil rose 4%, reaching 51,6 cents per pound. In February, soybean oil has accumulated a 7% increase, supported by firm demand and expectations of changes in the American biofuel program.

In Brazil, however, both soybean meal and soybean oil registered a decline. In Rondonópolis (MT), soybean meal fell 1,1% in the first half of February, to R$ 1.476 per ton. Soybean oil decreased 3% in January and 2,3% in February, to R$ 5.900 per ton, pressured by the progress of the harvest and slower consumption.

Soybean crushing in the United States hit a record high for December, with 6,12 million tons processed, the second-highest monthly volume in the historical series. For the 2025/26 crop year (October to December), the total reached 18,2 million tons, an 11% increase compared to the same period last year.

Despite expectations of a record harvest, crushing margins remain favorable in the main origins, supported by cheaper grain and higher oil prices.

Corn also declines.

After four consecutive months of increases, corn fell 2% in January in Chicago, to USD 4,32 per bushel. At the beginning of February, prices fell another 1%, to USD 4,28.

In Brazil, prices also fell. In Sorriso (MT), the price of the grain dropped 1% in January, to R$ 51 per sack, and accumulated a 7,8% decrease in the first half of February, to R$ 47,2. The decline reflects high production, comfortable stocks, and the start of the soybean harvest, which stimulates sales.

The planting of the second corn crop has reached 22% of the planned area, below the historical average of 25,5%, but above last year's pace. Mato Grosso leads the work, with 37% of the area sown. About 70% of the area should be planted in February, concentrating the critical phase of the crops between April and May and increasing the dependence on rainfall during this period.

The USDA slightly reduced its estimate of global corn stocks, from 291 to 289 million tons. In the United States, exports were revised upward to 83,8 million tons, but ending stocks are still expected to grow 37% compared to the previous season, maintaining pressure on prices in the short term.

For the 2026/27 crop season in the US, the price ratio between soybeans and corn, fertilizer costs, and crop rotation are expected to influence planting decisions, with a reduction in corn acreage and an expansion of soybean acreage anticipated. The first official estimate will be released on February 20th during the USDA Outlook Forum.