High supply keeps pressure on corn prices

StoneX's July estimate reinforces a scenario of ample corn supply in Brazil. The combination of a robust summer crop with a still substantial second crop, despite some losses in states like Goiás and Minas Gerais, keeps the market well supplied in the short term and helps explain the pressure observed on prices on the B3 in recent weeks.

According to Raphael Bulascoschi, market intelligence analyst at StoneX, although domestic demand remains strong and expanding, the low competitiveness of Brazilian corn in the international market has contributed to retaining a larger volume of the grain in the domestic market.

“In 2025, record production in the United States reinforced the country's competitiveness in global exports, and in 2026 Argentina also harvested a historic crop, gaining ground in international trade amid reduced export tariffs. The appreciation of the real over the last 18 months complements this movement, reducing the attractiveness of Brazilian corn abroad,” he assesses. 

For the second half of the year, however, the focus shifts to factors that could alter this picture. In the international market, the performance of the North American harvest will continue to determine the global balance — another full harvest in the United States tends to maintain pressure on Chicago and limit the recovery of domestic prices, although this cannot yet be guaranteed at the current stage of development of the American crop.

In Brazil, in addition to exchange rate volatility, which may intensify as the election cycle approaches, attention is growing regarding the 2026/27 harvest. After an exceptional season, it is unlikely that summer production will repeat the same performance: higher fertilizer costs may limit the planted area, while a possible El Niño pattern increases the risk of delays in soybean sowing and, consequently, planting outside the ideal window for the second corn crop.

Given this scenario, Raphael points out that, although the Brazilian corn balance still indicates comfort in the short term, the risks for the medium term seem more inclined towards a recovery in prices than towards further declines.