Grain production is expected to grow 36,8% in the next ten years

Grain production in Brazil is expected to increase 36,8% over the next ten years, reaching a total of 370,5 million tons in the 2031/2032 harvest. This increase corresponds to a growth rate of 2,7% per year. Cotton, second-crop corn and soybeans should continue to drive growth in grain production.

The numbers are from the study Agribusiness Projections, Brazil 2021/22 to 2031/32, carried out by the Secretariat of Agricultural Policy, of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), by the Secretariat of Intelligence and Strategic Relations, of the Brazilian Research Company Agriculture (Embrapa), and the Department of Statistics, University of Brasília (UnB).

According to the study, the domestic market, exports and productivity gains should be the main growth factors in the next decade. The study points to a growth trend with productivity gains, as the grain area is expected to increase by 17% between 2021/22 and 2031/32, going from 74,3 million hectares in 2021/22 to 86,9 million hectares in 2031/32, which corresponds to an annual increase of 1,6%.

Grain projections refer to the 16 products surveyed monthly by Conab, as part of its harvest surveys (Cotton, peanuts, rice, oats, canola, rye, barley, beans, sesame, sunflower, castor beans, corn, soybeans, sorghum , wheat and triticale). In this update of the projections, the month of September of the 2021/2022 harvest was taken as the basis for the beginning of the projected series.

Meat

Meat production (beef, pork and poultry) is expected to increase from 28,4 million tons in 2021/22 to 35 million tons at the end of the next decade, an increase of 23%. The biggest increase in production should occur in chicken meat, 25,6%, pork, 29,1% and beef, 14,9%.

According to the study, these percentages could be even higher, given the increased demand for animal protein. A growth effort consisting of infrastructure, investment in research and financing in the sector must be undertaken, the report points out.

Exports

Pork exports are expected to grow 38,9% over the next decade, reaching 1,5 million tons. Beef and chicken meat are also expected to grow, respectively 34,1% and 26,2%. In grains, the highlight of exports is soybeans, with forecast growth of 48,9%, reaching 114,9 million tons. Cotton lint and cellulose should also gain space in the foreign market, with growth of 38,6% and 32,8% in exports.

Despite being a large exporter of various products, the domestic market continues to be very relevant. In meat production, around 70% remains on the domestic market and, in grain production, around 60% remains internally. The report suggests that the country should take advantage of its comparative advantages in meat and fruit.

Regions

The state of Mato Grosso should lead the expansion of corn production in the next decade. Production should increase from 41,6 million tons in the 2021/2022 harvest, to 56,9 million in 2031/2032. In soybeans, the states of Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia and Mato Grosso do Sul stand out as leaders in production expansion.

In the region formed by the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, known as Matopiba, grain production is expected to increase from 31,8 million in 2021/2022 to 40,2 million tons in the next 10 years, in a planted area of , 10,3 million hectares in 2031/32.