Grain production for the 2022/23 harvest could reach 308 million tons

The first projections for total grain production for the 2022/23 harvest point to a harvest of 308 million tons. The result is mainly driven by the good performance of the corn, soybean, rice, beans and cotton markets. “Despite the increase in production costs, crops still have good liquidity and profitability for Brazilian producers”, explains the president of the National Supply Company (Conab), Guilherme Ribeiro. These factors influence the upward trend in the area allocated to soybeans, corn and cotton, as shown in the Perspectives for Agricultural Harvest 2022/23, released this Wednesday (24/07) by Conab. According to the numbers, which present the main market variables and trends for crops, the total production of these five main products grown in the country, which correspond to more than 90% of Brazilian grain production, is estimated at 294,3, XNUMX million tons.

For soybeans, Conab's outlook points to a record production scenario, projected at 150,36 million tons for the next season. Grain prices should remain attractive, as global supply and demand for the oilseed remain adjusted, reflecting a growth trend of 3,54% in area for the crop, potentially reaching 42,4 million hectares. Productivity in the 2022/23 cycle should recover in relation to the current harvest following the climate problems recorded in the southern states of the country and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul. With the expected improvement in productivity, Conab estimates that greater availability of The grain should provide exports of around 92 million tons, an increase of 22,2% compared to the 2021/22 harvest, a record for the crop. Even with the estimated increase in shipments, stocks for the 2022/23 season are also expected to grow by around 3,9 million tons in relation to what is forecast for the current cycle, being projected at 9,89 million tons.

In the case of cotton, the analysis also points to a scenario of increased area, productivity and consequent increase in production. The first forecasts for the 2022/23 harvest indicate a harvest of 2,92 million tons of lint. The factors that drive the advancement of culture are the high level of product prices, good profitability, early marketing, among others. However, uncertainties in the global economic scenario may restrict this growth. Given this production, a recovery in exported volume is expected to a level close to 2 million tons of final product, in addition to a carryover stock of approximately 1,75 million tons of feather at the end of 2023.

In the case of rice, the cultivated area should show a further reduction in the 2022/23 harvest. With the high cost of production, farmers tend to opt for crops that have better estimates of profitability and liquidity, such as corn and soybeans. Even so, production in the 2022/23 harvest should be around 11,2 million tons, given the possibility of recovery in productivity compared to 2021/22, which suffered from the availability of water resources for its good development. A similar scenario is expected for beans. The current better profitability of competing grains should reflect a mild reduction in legume area. As a result, production tends to remain well adjusted to demand, keeping the total harvest at around 3 million tons. For both products, the expected scenario is one of normality in relation to domestic supply.

For corn, a total production of 125,5 million tons is expected. In the first harvest, there is a projection of a slight drop in area, with a negative variation of 0,6%, as the cereal competes with soybeans. However, with a possible recovery in productivity, following water shortages in important producing regions in the 2021/22 season, production could reach 28,98 million tons. In the second grain harvest, an increase in both area and productivity is projected, which could result in a harvest of 94,53 million tons, an increase of 8,2% compared to the 2021/22 harvest. “The market scenario does not show a significant downward trend for corn prices, since the outlook points to demand and supply still being adjusted next year. As a result, margins for producers remain positive, even with high production costs. Furthermore, it is necessary to remember that in the last two harvests, the climate was a variable of great influence on the development of the crop”, explains the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.