Global corn abundance has set a precedent for 2025, driving down prices.

The year 2025 was crucial for the global corn market, especially in South America, where Brazil and Argentina delivered robust harvests, consolidating production records and increasing the global competitiveness of the grain. StoneX, through its Market Intelligence team, analyzed the most relevant events of the year and projections for the corn market in 2026. 

In Brazil, production reached a record 139,4 million tons in 2025, driven by favorable rainfall in the Midwest, while Argentina, despite a slight decrease in planted area due to fears of pests, also showed good productivity levels.

The scenario of abundance resulted in a global oversupply, putting pressure on international prices. However, Brazilian domestic consumption continued to expand strongly, driven mainly by the corn ethanol sector, which registered a significant increase in installed capacity and expanded its presence to new regions, such as Maranhão, Tocantins, Paraná, and Piauí. In 2025, national consumption reached approximately 91 million tons, 6,5 million more than in 2024, with emphasis on the use of the cereal in animal feed and in the growing biofuel segment.

Another highlight of the year was the growth of DDG, a co-product of ethanol production, whose increasing supply motivated efforts to open new markets, including the signing of an agreement with China for export, although no shipments have yet been made. Simultaneously, sorghum gained ground as an alternative for the second crop, benefiting from the opening of the Chinese market and the expansion of ethanol plants, as well as its adaptability to dry climates.

Brazil's impressive production impacted exports, which, despite growing compared to 2024, fell 33% when compared to 2023 due to strengthened domestic consumption and the appreciation of the basis, limiting Brazil's competitiveness in the international arena. In the United States, the planted area of ​​corn reached 40 million hectares, resulting in a harvest of 432,3 million tons, even in the face of climatic and phytosanitary challenges. The country broke export records, benefiting from a weakened dollar and demand from partners such as Mexico, Vietnam, and Spain.

The U.S. ethanol sector also maintained strong demand for the grain, although regulatory restrictions limited further growth. In the sanitary field, the closure of the U.S. border to the import of Mexican cattle impacted the dynamics of the corn export market. In China, consumption grew at a slower pace, with increased domestic production and a drop in imports. The European Union and Ukraine, after lower-than-expected harvests, are seeking recovery, while geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region remain a risk factor.

Expectations for 2026

For 2026, projections indicate continued expansion of Brazilian consumption, estimated at 97 million tons, while production is expected to reach 134,3 million tons, below the previous year's record. The corn ethanol sector stands out as the main driver of domestic growth, but the balance between supply and demand remains a concern, potentially limiting exportable surpluses. In Argentina, a recovery in planted area and export volume is expected, favored by reductions in export tariffs. In the United States, the slight reduction in planted area is projected to keep stocks comfortable, restricting upward price movements in Chicago.

Globally, the corn stock-to-use ratio is expected to be the lowest in recent years, according to the USDA, signaling a tighter market. The anticipated drop in production from major players and increased consumption in countries like Brazil, India, and the US may offset some of the supply, but factors such as oversupply of other grains, macroeconomic uncertainties, and political tensions, especially between Russia and Ukraine, increase volatility.