SC Harvest 2025/26: Drop in rice prices worries producers
Epagri's report indicates a decline in planted area and productivity, while corn advances and apples are expected to see a strong recovery.
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The 2024/25 calendar has reaffirmed the importance of corn in Brazilian agribusiness. Conab projects a record harvest of 350,2 million tons of grains, with a recovery in corn production and replenishment of stocks after the previous shortfall—an environment that has restored predictability to sales and portfolio planning by seed companies. The cereal will break the production record, potentially reaching 139,47 million tons. This "super harvest" guarantees food sovereignty for Brazil and the countries that depend on our production, in addition to reinforcing energy sovereignty and sustainability with biofuels, such as corn ethanol.
In the Midwest, especially in Mato Grosso, the market is even more favorable. The state is expected to harvest 55,1 million tons of corn in 2024/25 (a 12,9% increase), maintaining its national leadership and driving supply and exports through the Northern Arc. At the same time, domestic demand is reaching a new low with the expansion of corn ethanol and co-products (DDG/WDG) for animal feed: in 2025, biofuel derived from the cereal should reach approximately 10 billion liters, more than a quarter of all the country's ethanol, according to UNEM (National Union of Corn Ethanol), which brings together manufacturers in the sector.
This backdrop favors Forseed's strategy of focusing on the off-season crop — a declared priority for the brand — with the FS695 hybrid, launched in 2024. The early-maturing seed is advancing in Mato Grosso (the brand's largest market) and consolidating its presence in other states in the Midwest, as well as in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and reaching the South (Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul).
In the Dakar Agricultural Research + Agro Star trials, coordinated by ESALQ Lab this year in Alfenas (MG), the FS695 hybrid led in productivity, with 168 sacks per hectare. In the ranking of the Prediger Group along the BR-163 highway (MT) — a reference for independent evaluation in the Midwest — the seed came in 3rd place among 60 products, with 224,24 sacks per hectare, a leap compared to its previous performance (from 15th to 3rd position). The goal is to lead the market. In the trial conducted by PA Consultoria, the hybrid stood out, coming in 1st place among 50 products in the third planting season.
“FS695 is a high-yielding hybrid that stands out for its excellent agronomic package. It exhibits high tolerance to Bipolaris maydis, CMV (Complex of Mollicutes and Viruses), and water stress, in addition to a low reproduction factor for the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, Meloidogyne incognita, and Meloidogyne javanica – agents that can cause significant economic losses to the crop,” says Élcio Marques, National Marketing Manager at Forseed. “Because it has a lower reproduction factor for nematodes, FS695 can be an excellent tool for managing these diseases in the main regions of Brazil, such as the state of Mato Grosso,” adds the executive.
The 2024/25 growing season was particularly pressured by foliar diseases in the Central-West region, with a focus on Bipolaris. The observed health of the FS695 hybrid—combined with its performance in water-deficit environments—explains the hybrid's rise in popularity among Cerrado farmers. However, the hybrid's application is broad: it can be planted in practically all of Brazil during the summer and off-season. In the summer, it stands out especially in Minas Gerais, Goiás, Bahia, Piauí, and São Paulo. In the off-season, the material shows excellent performance in Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Maranhão, Tocantins, and Pará.
Conab estimates an annual increase of 11% in corn production in Brazil for 2024/25, supported by productivity and a slight expansion of planted area, with the second crop accounting for the largest share of the volume. In Mato Grosso, IMEA (Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics) points to record supply and demand for 2024/25, with 55,10 million tons available and 53,70 million tons of total use — combining strong exports and growing domestic consumption.
The expansion of corn ethanol production—concentrated in Mato Grosso and neighboring states—continues to demand the grain. UNEM projects that the commodity will account for more than 25% of the ethanol mix by 2025, consolidating the industrialization of the grain in the Midwest. Furthermore, there is the increasing value of co-products such as DDG, which are important for the protein chain.
In terms of production costs, in August of this year IMEA projected an Effective Operating Cost (COE) of R$ 4.782,75/ha and a Total Operating Cost (COT, which includes the COE) of R$ 5.372,17/ha for 2025/26, figures that reinforce the search for stable materials. "It is with this scenario that FS695 becomes more competitive for the producer," emphasizes Élcio.
With a technical assistance network close to the producer, the brand is working to make FS695 a sales "blockbuster." "The field is showing the difference of our product, which combines high productivity with health—and the producer notices. The hybrid was born in 2024 already in environments of water pressure and disease, but it also performed well in the summer in Minas Gerais and Goiás, which expands its use throughout the country," concludes the Forseed executive.
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