Fertilizer prices rise up to 20% at ports in January.

Fertilizer buyers are facing a scenario of high prices in the first weeks of 2026. According to the weekly report from StoneX, a global financial services company, in the last week of January, urea prices at Brazilian ports were about 10% higher than the level observed in the same period of 2025. Meanwhile, prices for SSP and potassium chloride (KCl) registered increases of nearly 20% in the same year-on-year comparison.

As market intelligence analyst Tomás Pernías explains, this price increase is not limited to Brazil. According to him, the rise in fertilizer prices compared to the beginning of 2025 is also observed, to a greater or lesser degree, in other markets, indicating a global phenomenon.

"Among the factors supporting this higher price level are seasonal elements, such as preparations for agricultural applications in various countries, and geopolitical factors that are difficult to anticipate, such as the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran," the analyst points out.

In this context, the Middle East is a strategic region for nitrogen fertilizers, and any instability tends to generate volatility and reinforce an upward bias in prices.

In the United States, the start of the year marks the resumption of purchases for the spring season, with increased imports between February and April, a traditionally busier period. This strengthening of American demand usually puts pressure on prices both in the domestic market and in supplier countries.

China is also going through a sensitive period in the first half of the year. According to a survey by StoneX, despite being a major producer, the seasonal impact on imports is more limited, with the exception of KCl, whose purchases tend to increase in the first months of the year. The main Chinese effect occurs on the export side.

“At strategic moments, authorities often restrict exports to prioritize domestic supply, which reduces global supply and intensifies competition for cargo,” Pernías points out. For some fertilizers, these restrictions are expected to last at least until the middle of the second half of 2026.

Another relevant factor is Indian demand, given the expectation of a new procurement round. If India announces a new round in the coming weeks, this demand could coincide with a key period for markets such as the United States, Canada, China, and Europe, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

In this context of firm prices, StoneX assesses that Brazilian buyers tend to adopt a more cautious stance. "High prices, coupled with unattractive terms of trade, in some cases among the worst in recent years, reduce the incentive to anticipate purchases for the next season," concludes Pernías.