Fertilizer prices continue to rise amid geopolitical tensions.

The global fertilizer market remains under pressure between March and early April, amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has affected production, logistics, and energy costs, especially in Persian Gulf countries. Nitrogen fertilizers are leading the upward trend. In the Brazilian market, urea has seen significant price increases during this period, reaching approximately USD 760 per ton CFR on April 10th.

According to Itaú BBA, the increase reflects a combination of tighter supply, higher oil and natural gas prices, and greater risk aversion in the international scenario. In the short term, the market tends to remain tight and volatile, given the uncertainties about the duration of the conflict and the normalization of global logistics flows.

The phosphate segment also experienced increased tension in recent weeks. In addition to the direct impacts of the conflict in a region strategically important for raw material supply, the market was pressured by the rise in sulfur prices, a fundamental input in sulfuric acid production. In Brazil, sulfur prices have risen significantly since February, increasing production costs.

In this context, phosphate prices advanced by approximately 7% in the domestic market, with MAP reaching approximately USD 890 per ton CFR. Although agricultural demand is still advancing gradually, the combination of tighter supply, high costs, and geopolitical uncertainty tends to sustain prices at firm levels in the short term.

The potash market shows greater relative stability compared to other nutrients, although it is also impacted by increased global uncertainties and logistical costs. International supply remains more balanced, with Russia and Belarus maintaining a significant share of global trade.

For the coming months, the expectation is for a gradual increase in demand, while prices remain supported, albeit with less volatility compared to nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.