Fertilizers are driving up costs, and the industry is demanding federal action.

The fertilizer sector in Brazil has intensified its warnings to the federal government regarding the escalating costs that are putting pressure on agribusiness. According to the Paraná Fertilizer and Agricultural Correctives Industry Union (Sindiadubos-PR), external and internal factors are expected to cause a contraction of up to 15% in the national market by 2026, with direct repercussions on food production and prices.

In addition to the impacts of geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Ukraine, the sector points to two aggravating domestic factors: the start of PIS/Cofins tax collection on fertilizers, scheduled for April 1st with the regulation of the tax reform, and Provisional Measure No. 1.343/2026, which deals with minimum freight rates. According to the entity, the combination of these factors increases production costs and requires urgent measures to avoid further price increases for consumers.

After a record 49 million tons of fertilizer delivered in 2025, a contraction is expected in the short term. According to the president of Sindiadubos-PR, Aluísio Schwartz, the scenario of high costs, coupled with logistical obstacles and global uncertainties, has led companies and producers to postpone purchasing decisions. "The market may shrink between 10% and 15% this year, given the increase in costs and operational difficulties," he says.

The leader also warns of potential impacts on agricultural production. According to him, the increased cost of inputs could lead to reduced fertilizer use and even a decrease in planted area, which tends to put pressure on commodity prices such as soybeans, corn, meat, sugar, and coffee. "The bottom line is higher prices for the consumer," he summarizes.

Global pressure on inputs

Internationally, fertilizer supply remains under pressure. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran could compromise phosphate fertilizer production due to global dependence on sulfur—approximately 40% of this input passes through the region. Furthermore, Chinese restrictions on phosphate exports and production limitations in countries like India and Russia exacerbate the supply situation.

The rise in oil prices also impacts logistics costs, putting pressure on inputs such as potassium, which had been showing stability. According to Sindiadubos-PR, even with a possible easing of the conflicts, there is no expectation of a price drop in the short term.

Another point of concern is port logistics. The backlog of imports could lead to queues and delays, affecting the supply for the next soybean harvest, which begins planting in September.

Coordination in Brasilia

Given this scenario, industry entities have intensified their efforts to engage with the federal government. Sindiadubos-PR is working in conjunction with the National Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (Anda) and the Brazilian Association of Fertilizer Mixers (AMA), through the Instituto Pensar Agropecuário (IPA) and the Agricultural Parliamentary Front (FPA).

Among the main demands are the postponement of PIS/Cofins tax collection on fertilizers, the revision of minimum freight rules, and the reopening of Chinese phosphate exports to Brazil. According to the sector, maintaining the restrictions could further increase costs for rural producers.

Despite criticism of the reliance on imported inputs, especially from China, the sector emphasizes that the use of these fertilizers contributed to the record performance of the last harvest. However, the continuation of restrictions could compromise the competitiveness of Brazilian agriculture in the coming cycles.