Fertilizer imports are expected to continue falling in 2026.

Brazilian fertilizer imports remain weak in 2026. In the period from January to June, considering the main raw materials imported by the country, volumes were 8,6% lower than those recorded in the same period of 2025. This assessment comes from Tomás Pernías, Market Intelligence analyst at StoneX.

“The movement reflects a scenario of greater caution on the part of Brazilian buyers, amidst the turbulence caused by the war in the Middle East and terms of trade that have been among the worst levels in recent years. Given this environment, some demand has slowed the pace of purchases and postponed negotiations, putting pressure on the volumes landed in recent months,” he explains.

The decline is especially evident in urea, whose imports were 32% below the volume observed between January and June 2025. A similar trend was recorded in MAP, with a 24% drop on the same basis of comparison. Ammonium nitrate also appears among the negative highlights, with imported volumes 42% lower than in the first half of last year.

According to Pernías, another point of concern is sulfur, an essential raw material for the production of phosphates. Brazilian imports of this input were practically 42% lower than those observed in the first half of 2025. Amid the global shortage of the product, manufacturers have reduced their operating rates, limiting the international supply of this group of fertilizers.

Conversely, potassium chloride and TSP stood out for imports exceeding the volumes recorded in 2025. In the case of potassium chloride, more favorable acquisition conditions and attractive terms of trade supported the increase in Brazilian purchases. As for TSP, the more restricted global supply of MAP and DAP led part of the national demand to shift to this alternative, aiming to meet phosphate needs.

For the 2026/2027 crop season, Pernías assesses that the import window is getting shorter and shorter, although the impacts vary depending on the segment analyzed. Among nitrogen fertilizers, external purchases usually gain traction from June and July, reaching higher volumes until December, a period in which importers replenish stocks before the second crop.

“However, the situation is more sensitive in the case of phosphates. Most purchases usually occur between April and August, and in order for fertilizers to be available for use from September and October onwards, Brazilian importers will need to accelerate the pace of acquisitions in the coming weeks,” he concludes.