Favorable weather should boost Paraguay's soybean production.

The rains recorded throughout December significantly changed the scenario for the soybean crop in Paraguay and rekindled expectations of a very positive campaign in 2026, according to an analysis by StoneX, a global financial services company.

The estimate for the main crop was revised from 9,29 million to 9,64 million tons, and if the second crop reaches approximately 1,39 million tons, total production could exceed 11 million tons next year.

After a start marked by good prospects and strong concerns about drought at the end of November, the regularization of rainfall brought new life to crops in practically the entire country. "In December, the rains were distributed in a very favorable way in most of the producing regions, which was decisive for the recovery of the productive potential of soybeans," highlights Larissa Barboza Alvarez, Market Intelligence analyst at StoneX.

In addition to the return of the rains, the milder summer has led to an extension of the oilseed crop cycle—a rare occurrence in Paraguay. “The lower temperatures have extended the crop's development and caused rainfall to coincide exactly with the most critical phase, grain filling, which has generally improved productivity expectations,” explains Larissa.

According to the analyst, the expected results are positive in all producing regions. "Even in San Pedro, which had been heavily affected in recent years, the expectation now is for a harvest considered normal for the first time in four years," she points out. However, she adds, this is not an exceptional "bumper crop," but a campaign that is clearly better than initially predicted.

In the main producing areas, from Katueté to Ciudad del Este, projected yields exceed those of the previous cycle, which was already considered good. The same trend is also observed in the south of the country.

The lengthening of the cycle, however, has repercussions for the agricultural calendar. “Under normal conditions, the soybean harvest would already be underway, but the delay will cause the process to occur later, which could directly impact the second crop,” warns Larissa. The cooler weather, with temperatures below the usual for January in some regions, may also influence the development of corn.

According to StoneX, the critical period is concentrated between January 15th and the end of the month. "If the soybean harvest extends to the end of January or the beginning of February, the likelihood of a reduction in the second-crop soybean area increases, with greater prioritization of corn, even though this may require adjustments to productivity levels," says the analyst.

In the field of commercialization, the pace remains moderate. "In the first week of January, about 23% of future soybean supply was traded, above the 19% recorded up to December, but still below the historical average of 30% for the last five years," she notes. According to her, if a significant portion of the production is left to be negotiated later, the concentration of supply in the same window could put pressure on premiums in the coming months.