Extreme heat exceeds the historical average in the Midwest by 30%

The heat wave, which can reach 44 degrees in the Central-West, will last throughout the week, according to a survey by Ignitia Análise Climática, a company specializing in forecasts for tropical climates. In some cities in this region, such as Dourados, in Mato Grosso do Sul, this week's maximum temperature has already exceeded the historical average for the month of November by almost 30%, in the so-called climatological value.

According to the meteorologist and director of Ignitia, João Rodrigo de Castro, the city of Dourados (MS) recorded a temperature of 38,5 degrees this Monday (13/11) and the city's historical average for the month of November is 30,7 .34 degrees. Castro warns that this heat wave is extreme. “If we look at historical data, we see that the average maximum temperature in Cuiabá (MT) is 17ºC in November. This Monday, at 41,1pm, the temperature reached 29.7º C. In Mineiros (GO) the maximum historical average is 37.5º C and the maximum this Monday reached XNUMXº C”, he compares.

The meteorologist and director of Ignitia assesses that the pattern observed in recent days is unusual and comes at a terrible time for national agriculture. “The rain has not yet picked up pace in this rainy season and therefore, many areas with newly planted soybeans have shown disappointing results, with cases of replanting due to problems with falling over”, he says.

The forecast from the European ECMWF model with nine kilometers of resolution indicates the maintenance of this scenario. For some regions, such as the border between the States of Goiás and Mato Grosso, the forecast shows the possibility of temperatures that could exceed 44 degrees, a value well above the climate average for the region. Lower temperatures are expected only in southern Brazil, which is experiencing a new heavy rain event.

Surprises on the way?

Despite the very high temperatures, farmers may have a good surprise in the coming days, says Castro. “Rain may form due to the heat. This already happened this Monday (13) in Rio Verde (MT), where it rained 6,8mm and could happen again, in a very isolated way, in areas throughout the Central-West and also the Southeast”, he says.