Extratropical cyclone and cold front hit part of Brazil next week

Next week, the forecast indicates the occurrence of rain, cold and strong winds in part of central-southern Brazil. On Monday (10), a new cold front should advance through the south of the country. This system will move quickly through the region and, in the early hours of Tuesday (11), it will advance along the coast of São Paulo.

Furthermore, an area of ​​continental low pressure, positioned between the north of Argentina and Paraguay, gains strength and is expected to advance over the south of Brazil, creating a new extratropical cyclone between Tuesday and Wednesday (12).

It is worth highlighting, however, that there is a difference between the numerical weather forecast models for the formation date and the exact area of ​​the cyclone configuration. According to some models, the system will form on the coast of Rio Grande do Sul, others indicate its formation over the continent, between Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

Even so, starting next Tuesday, there is a forecast of windier weather conditions between the South Region, Mato Grosso do Sul and south of São Paulo. Intense winds, with more significant gusts, are expected to occur, especially on the coast of the South Region from Tuesday afternoon, with gusts that can exceed 80 km/h in some points. The winds should gain strength, especially from Thursday (13), also reaching areas of the coast of the Southeast region.

As for rainfall volumes, the COSMO model indicates the possibility of daily accumulations above 70 millimeters (mm) in the south of Rio Grande do Sul throughout Tuesday (figure 2a). On Wednesday, the highest daily totals should be concentrated between the northeast of Rio Grande do Sul and the south and east of Santa Catarina, where, occasionally, accumulations of around 100 mm per day cannot be ruled out. 

As areas of the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina will already be hit by significant rain between this Friday (7) and next Saturday (8) - see news -, the National Meteorologist Institute (Inmet) draws attention to the possible impacts of rain with the scenario predicted for next week.

The extratropical cyclone will be associated with a cold front that is expected to advance continentally across the country, reaching not only the South, but advancing through areas of the Southeast and Central-West, and may even reach the south of the Amazon region from mid-XNUMX. week, configuring a new cold event.

With the advance of the cold front, an intense mass of cold air will reach the country from Wednesday onwards. On Tuesday, maximum temperatures drop in Rio Grande do Sul due to increased cloudiness and rain, but, from Wednesday onwards, cold air advances over the South and Mato Grosso do Sul. On Thursday, the forecast is that cold air reaches areas of Mato Grosso, Rondônia, southern Acre, western and southern Goiás, São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro and southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. The forecast indicates a downward trend of 10°C to 12°C, in relation to what was observed the previous day, both in the minimum and maximum temperatures in some points in these areas.