Expectations for the 2021/22 grain harvest in São Paulo are 10,25 million tons

The expectation of the São Paulo grain harvest for 2021/2022 is 10,25 million tons, according to the 11th survey by the National Supply Company (Conab), with data compiled by the Economic Department of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (FAESP). The forecast is 0,82% lower than in the 10% survey (10,33 million tons), however 18,55% higher than in the last harvest, when 8,65 million tons were harvested. The area planted with grains totals 2,48 million hectares, an increase of 3,44% compared to 2020/21, and the expected average productivity is 4.131 kg/ha, a gain of 14,61%.

“There was a small drop in production expectations in relation to the last survey, but the numbers are still very positive about the past harvest, as well as the planted area and productivity. Agriculture in São Paulo, despite all the challenges, such as access to credit and climate issues, is experiencing a positive moment”, says the president of FAESP, Fábio de Salles Meirelles.

The positive highlight was the first corn harvest, which was revised upwards, at 85,4 thousand tons in this survey, with production estimated at 1,99 million tons (an increase of 8,39% compared to the previous harvest).

With these results, total corn production in the state, considering both harvests, is projected at 4,33 million tons, 32,38% higher than in the last cycle.

The small drop in production estimated in this survey is mainly based on the review of rice, wheat and corn harvests. The volume of rice, previously estimated at 42,7 thousand tons, is now projected at 34,3 thousand tons, registering drops of -19,67% compared to the previous forecast and -13,82% compared to the last data cycle.

Wheat cultivation in the State was sown influenced by drought, which still persists and worries producers in the rainfed system. For this reason, there was a reduction of -6,28% in expectations for the production of this cereal, currently valued at 265,5 thousand tons (+4,28% compared to the volume harvested in the previous harvest).

Harvest corn had its projection reduced by 147,5 thousand tons or -5,94% from the 10th survey for this one. Production from this second harvest is estimated at 2,33 million tons, compared to 1,43 million in the 2020/21 cycle, an increase of 63,3%.

Brazil

Conab's 11th survey for the 2021/22 harvest reduced estimates of Brazilian grain production by 1,05 million tons. Previously estimated at 272,5 million tons, production is now valued at 271,4 million tons, registering a drop of 0,39% compared to the previous survey, but an increase of 6,24% compared to the results of the last harvest. The planted area totals 73,8 million hectares (+5,76%) and productivity, 3.678 kg/ha (+0,46%).

The positive highlight is wheat, with a record production estimate of 9,2 million tons (+19,29% compared to the previous harvest). Despite the slight delay in wheat sowing in the South region, due to excess rainfall, conditions remain favorable for the development of crops, justifying the upward revision (+129,5 thousand tons or +1,43%) carried out in this latest survey.

The drop in the projection for grain production is mainly due to the new estimates for the cultivation of corn 2nd and 3rd harvests, sorghum, beans 2nd harvest and seed cotton. From the previous survey to the current one, the estimate for the production of seed cotton fell by 73,3 thousand tons, that of 2nd harvest beans, 75,8 thousand tons, and that of sorghum, 93,5 thousand tons.

Although estimates for the summer corn harvest were raised by 174,5 thousand tons, totaling 24,98 million tons in this cycle, it was not enough to avoid the drop in total corn production, this is because the second harvest, responsible for 76% of total production, recorded a significant drop in harvest estimates.

The yield of off-season corn in the states of MG, GO, SP and BA was affected by water scarcity and the attack by the corn leafhopper. Thus, the estimated production of this harvest fell from 88,4 million tons to 87,4 million tons. Despite representing an increase of 43,9% compared to the results of the last harvest, it is 1,18% lower than the previous projection.

The production of the third corn harvest was reduced by 104,2 thousand tons in this survey and should total 2,3 million tons in the 2021/22 cycle. Given this scenario, total corn production, considering the three harvests, is estimated at 114,7 million tons (+31,68% compared to 2020/21 production and -0,83% compared to the 10th survey).