Coffee inventories in Europe fall to their lowest level since 2024.

Coffee stocks in the European Coffee Federation (ECF) fell in the first two months of 2026, reaching their lowest level since March 2024, amid weaker net imports, supply constraints at origin, signs of weakening demand in the European bloc, and still high financial costs for maintaining stocks.

According to the new report from Hedgepoint Global Markets, the decline mainly reflects the reduction in net imports, resulting from the slowdown in imports in 2026, combined with the increase in re-exports throughout 2025. This movement directly impacted coffee stocks in the bloc, with reductions in all varieties, especially robusta.

Structural factors have put pressure on the supply flow.

On one hand, financial costs remain high due to the inverted futures market (with shorter-term contracts more expensive than long-term ones) and interest rates still at higher levels, which discourages the formation of stocks at destinations. On the other hand, coffee growers, more capitalized due to the high prices of recent harvests, continue to hold onto part of their crop. Especially in Brazil (the world's largest coffee producer), producers have begun to retain a larger share of the 2025/26 harvest, reducing the pace of exports and contributing to the country's lower participation in European supply.

“With most origins currently in the off-season and logistics limited by the conflict between the US and Iran, EU imports may remain restricted until the 26/27 Brazilian harvest reaches the market,” says Laleska Moda, market intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint.

This scenario also altered the composition of the bloc's imports. Brazil's share decreased compared to previous harvests, while countries like Vietnam and Indonesia gained ground, with flows closer to historical averages.

On the demand side, indicators point to weakness. Apparent consumption (or disappearance) accumulated between October and February of the 2025/26 crop year totaled 17,1 million bags, below the 17,4 million recorded in the same period of the previous year and significantly lower than the ten-year average of 18,6 million bags.

The movement reflects consumers' increased sensitivity to high coffee prices, which have been putting pressure on consumption in Europe since 2024. Industry data also indicate that, although companies have recorded nominal revenue growth in the European market, sales volumes have declined amid tougher negotiations with retailers and lower demand.

The outlook for 2026 remains challenging. Geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices are increasing inflationary risks and weighing on consumer confidence in Europe, which could limit a more consistent recovery in demand in the short term.

“On the other hand, there is potential for improvement at the end of the year. The expectation of a record harvest in Brazil in 2026/27 could help to ease prices and stimulate demand in the European bloc, although this movement depends on the willingness of producers to sell and the pace at which supply enters the market,” concludes Laleska Moda.