Ethanol production grows in the North and Northeast.

Sugarcane crushing in the 2025-2026 harvest in the North and Northeast regions totaled 52,8 million tons up to the end of February, a 4,1% decrease compared to the same period of the previous cycle, showing – so far – a more ethanol-focused mix. The data comes from monitoring carried out by the Association of Sugar, Ethanol and Bioenergy Producers (NovaBio), based on data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture (Mapa).

In the North region, milling reached 6,9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5,3%, while in the Northeast, sugarcane processing reached 45,8 million tons, 4% below the figure recorded on the same date of the previous season. Considering both regions, sugar production reached 2,988 million tons, a decrease of 13,8% compared to the same period of the previous harvest.

Ethanol prices are rising.

In the ethanol sector, total production in the North and Northeast regions reached 2,790 million cubic meters as of February 28th, compared to 2,156 million cubic meters recorded in the same period of the previous cycle, considering both biofuel derived from sugarcane and that manufactured from corn.

In this segment, within the sugarcane ethanol category, the volume of anhydrous ethanol produced totaled 852,8 cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3,4%, while hydrated ethanol reached 1,289 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3,2% compared to the same period of the previous cycle. In the case of corn ethanol, the volume totaled 648,5 cubic meters, with 557,3 cubic meters of anhydrous ethanol and 91,2 cubic meters of hydrated ethanol.

“From a climate perspective, we observed a harvest marked by irregular rainfall and above-average climate alternation. In the macroeconomic sphere, it is a season strongly influenced by the geopolitical agenda. The more ethanol-focused mix, then, stemmed from the US and London stock exchanges, when fund movements were heavily geared towards the volatility of the international sugar market, which, even with fundamentals indicating small deficits in the international balance of the sweetener, still showed a more exaggerated downward price trend. This factor was associated with the effects of Trump's tariff hikes, which impacted Brazilian sugar shipments to the US, since this quota is preferentially reserved for production from the North/Northeast,” notes the CEO of NovaBio, Renato Cunha.

ATR

Data on Total Recoverable Sugar (TRS), the main indicator of sugarcane quality in final products, shows a 7% decrease. The index per ton of sugarcane also showed a drop, in this case, of 3% compared to the same period a year ago.

In a comparison between projections and actual results for the 2025-2026 season, by the end of February the sector had reached 89,5% of the estimated sugarcane milling across all regions. The North Region, which practically finished milling in the current harvest in December 2025, showed the most advanced execution, with 97% of the forecast, while the Northeast reached 88,5%.

Ethanol stocks

At the end of February, the volume of sugarcane ethanol in stock was 322,6 cubic meters, with 143,2 cubic meters of hydrated ethanol and 179,4 cubic meters of anhydrous ethanol stored. For corn-based biofuel, the most recent reading indicates a stock of 21 cubic meters, with 2,1 cubic meters of hydrated ethanol and 18,8 cubic meters of anhydrous ethanol in stock.

In total, ethanol stocks reached 343,7 cubic meters through February, a year-on-year decrease of 10,25%. Anhydrous ethanol showed a reduction of 9,05%, while hydrated ethanol fell by 11,83%.