Ethanol production declines while sugar remains high in the Center-South

In the second half of September, production units in the Center-South region processed 40,85 million tons compared to 38,84 million in the 2024/2025 harvest. Cumulatively, from the start of the 2025/2026 harvest until October 1, milling reached 490,93 million tons and continues to show a 2,99% decline compared to the 506,04 million tons recorded in the same period of the previous cycle.

At the end of September, 259 production units were operating in the Center-South region, including 238 sugarcane processing units, ten corn-based ethanol producers, and eleven flex-fuel plants. During the month, four units ceased sugarcane milling, three of which did so in the second half of the month. 

Regarding the quality of the raw material, the level of Total Recoverable Sugars (ATR) recorded in the second half of September reached 157,48 kg of ATR per ton of sugarcane, against 160,34 kg per ton in the 2024/2025 harvest – a negative variation of 1,78%. In the accumulated harvest, the indicator marks 136,04 kg of ATR per ton, registering a decrease of 3,63% compared to the value observed in the same position in the previous cycle.

Sugar and ethanol production

Sugar production in the second half of September totaled 3,14 million tons. Cumulative production from the start of the harvest through October 1st totaled 33,52 million tons, compared to 33,24 million tons in the previous cycle.

According to Luciano Rodrigues, Director of Sector Intelligence at Unica, "for the third consecutive fortnight, the sugar-related production mix declined. In the last fifteen days of September, the indicator reached 51,2%, compared to 53,5% in the previous fortnight."

When looking at the production mix of only annexes (plants capable of producing both sugar and ethanol), the decline reached 2,5 percentage points in São Paulo and 3,5 percentage points in the Central-Western states. "This more intense downward trend in the Central-Western states reflects the lower relative attractiveness of the sweetener in that region and the greater stimulus for ethanol production in these states," explained Rodrigues.

In the second half of September, ethanol production by units in the Center-South reached 2,21 billion liters, of which 1,36 billion liters were hydrous ethanol (-6,33%) and 851,78 million liters were anhydrous ethanol (+7,34%). In the current agricultural cycle, biofuel production totaled 23,02 billion liters (-8,80%), of which 14,38 billion liters were hydrous ethanol (-10,93%) and 8,64 billion liters were anhydrous ethanol (-5,02%).

Of the total ethanol produced in the second half of September, 16,70% was produced from corn, registering production of 369,61 million liters this year, compared to 334,45 million liters in the same period of the 2024/2025 cycle – an increase of 10,51%. Cumulative since the beginning of the harvest, corn ethanol production reached 4,48 billion liters – an increase of 18,38% compared to the same period last year. 

Ethanol sales

In September, ethanol sales totaled 3,09 billion liters. Anhydrous ethanol sales in the period reached 1,21 billion liters, a 16,45% increase, while hydrous ethanol sales totaled 1,88 billion liters, a 2,12% decrease.

In the domestic market, anhydrous ethanol sales from plants in the Center-South region totaled 1,18 billion liters, a 15,34% increase compared to the same period in the previous harvest. Hydrous ethanol sales, meanwhile, reached 1,75 billion liters, a 0,45% increase.

From the beginning of the harvest through October 1st, ethanol sales by units in the Center-South region totaled 17,51 ​​billion liters, a 2,03% decline. The accumulated volume of hydrous ethanol totaled 10,98 billion liters (-5,50%), while anhydrous ethanol reached 6,53 billion liters (+4,40%).

CBios market

Data from B3 as of September 15th indicates the issuance of 33,59 million credits in 2025 by biofuel producers. The amount of CBios available for trading held by obligated parties, non-obligated parties, and issuers totals 31,03 million decarbonization credits.

Rodrigues explains that, "with more than two months remaining until the deadline for meeting the targets, the biofuels industry has already made available an amount that exceeds the total amount of credits necessary to fully meet the targets required by the Program." The number of CBios available is sufficient to meet the 2025 commitment and enable the acquisition of all CBios not previously retired by defaulting distributors, reiterated the UNICA director.