Embrapa proposes 163 measures for climate risk management.

Embrapa has submitted a Technical Note to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) containing 163 measures that can be adopted in Brazilian agriculture to reduce the risk of losses caused by climate change. Motivated by the occurrence of El Niño in the 2026/2027 crop season, the document goes beyond the phenomenon itself and emphasizes the need for permanent actions to manage climate risks.

Of the 163 measures proposed, 14 are transversal to the entire agricultural sector, 139 are specific to each productive segment, and ten correspond to actions that enable or support public policy programs. 

The Technical Note was produced within the scope of the Working Group on El Niño established by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), with the participation of specialists from Embrapa and the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). Approximately 50 professionals from Embrapa participated in the preparation of the recommendations.

“Although motivated by El Niño 2026/27, the document adopts a broader perspective on agroclimatic risk management, recognizing that many of the threats, vulnerabilities, and measures analyzed are also applicable to other recurring climatic events and conditions,” says Embrapa President Silvia Massruhá. 

Eduardo Monteiro, coordinator of the Zarc Network (Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risk) and researcher at Embrapa Digital Agriculture, adds that the technical note points to a broader challenge for Brazilian agriculture, which is the need to consolidate a permanent policy for managing agroclimatic risks. This includes the ability to anticipate, monitor, and respond in an organized manner to droughts, excessive rainfall, heat waves, frosts, storms, and fires. 

"The main legacy of this working group may be the transition from a predominantly reactive logic of crisis management to a permanent culture of anticipation, preparation, adaptation, monitoring and learning," analyzes Monteiro.

Impacts of El Niño 

The document presents the history of effects caused in Brazil during El Niño years, as well as projections for this year. Among these projections is a higher probability of below-average rainfall in areas of the Central-North region of the country and above-average rainfall in the South. The projections, the technical note emphasizes, indicate an increased risk, but do not determine in advance the impacts on each region, crop, or production system.

The technical note considers climate risks such as delays or irregularities in the start of the rainy season, below-average rainfall and prolonged water deficits, high temperatures, above-average rainfall, and severe convective storms. The negative impacts of each of these risks, and positive impacts in some cases, are detailed for the grain and fiber, fruit growing, forestry, vegetable growing, pasture and livestock, industrial crops, and aquaculture sectors. 

Climate risk management

After identifying the risks and impacts they may have on crops and production chains, the technical note addresses risk management aimed at prevention, impact reduction, risk transfer measures, and acceptance of remaining risk.

The 163 recommended measures are structured to indicate the risk addressed, the timeframe for implementation (immediate, short, medium, and long term), and the conditions for adoption. 

Among the measures considered cross-cutting are: monitoring of weather forecasts; use of local meteorological data; use of the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risk (Zarc); spatial and temporal diversification of production; adoption of crop-livestock integration (ILP) and crop-livestock-forestry integration (ILPF) systems; constant risk assessment; development of a contingency plan for adverse climatic events; maintenance of rural property infrastructure; sizing of operational capacity; recording of climatic events and impacts for better evaluation of the measures adopted; economic evaluation of the level of protection for each risk; creation of financial reserves; use of rural insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms; and team training.

For each of the production chains, specific measures are established that include soil management, cultivar selection, operational planning, investment in protective structures, drainage, irrigation, among others. There are 139 measures in total. 

Finally, the technical note presents ten enabling and supportive measures for public policy instruments. These are actions of an institutional, financial, scientific, technological, and technical assistance nature, whose implementation does not depend on the rural producer.

The following are listed: strengthening and improving risk assessment instruments, such as Zarc; expanding financing mechanisms focused on climate adaptation; expanding and improving risk transfer instruments, such as rural insurance; strengthening technical assistance; strengthening research and validating technologies for the development of adapted materials; improving agrometeorological monitoring systems; strengthening integrated water resources management; monitoring adaptation policies and measures; expanding the national capacity for prevention, detection, and combating rural and forest fires; and expanding programs for the recovery and restoration of vegetation cover in vulnerable and strategic areas for water security. 

Regional recommendations

Embrapa teams are working on technical notes focusing on regionalized recommendations. It is expected that guidance notes for the Southeast, Central-West, Northeast, and North regions will be published by mid-September.

The Working Group on the Map will have a report.

The technical note developed by Embrapa is part of one of the action fronts of the Working Group established through MAPA Ordinance No. 928, of June 30, 2026, to address measures to prevent risks caused by El Niño in Brazilian agriculture. Next Thursday, the Working Group will also deliver a report containing information from all areas of activity.

During its period of operation, the working group consulted with institutions such as the National Water Agency (ANA), the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), as well as Embrapa, Inmet, and the Ministry of Agriculture's secretariats. 

According to Bruno Leite, coordinator of the working group, the Embrapa technical note contributes to assessing the impacts of El Niño and indicates a technical standard in the approach to damage reduction that should guide future actions. 

“We already have a fairly large menu of technologies that help to deal with El Niño and adverse weather events. The challenge now is to get this knowledge to the rural producer,” he says.

One of the recommendations in the GT's final report, Leite anticipates, will be the implementation of a coordinated communication plan among the institutions. In parallel with the development of the GT's actions, the MAPA communication team has already been working on creating a special webpage, producing informative videos, and other promotional materials.