El Niño influences projections for the 2026/27 winter crop in SC.

The Agricultural Research and Rural Extension Company of Santa Catarina (Epagri) released the first estimates for the 2026/27 winter crop in the state, indicating a scenario marked by the influence of El Niño and by important changes in the behavior of the state's main winter crops. The data point to a reduction in the areas cultivated with garlic, onion and wheat, while oats and barley are expected to expand.

The projections were developed from information collected by a technical network present in all regions of Santa Catarina. The survey takes place in a climatic context characterized by mild temperatures, high humidity, and frequent rainfall in the coming months, conditions that tend to directly influence crop performance.

According to meteorologist Marilene de Lima from Epagri/Ciram, the winter should feature temperatures without extremes and a greater occurrence of cloudiness and precipitation. The risk of frost will be more concentrated in the higher areas of the Midwest and the Southern Plateau.

In vegetable crops, garlic and onions are among the most susceptible to the impacts of excess moisture. Increased rainfall can lead to waterlogging of the soil and the incidence of bacterial diseases. In the case of garlic, crop health can be compromised, especially in areas with insufficient drainage. Onions, on the other hand, may have a reduced storage capacity due to the increased water content in the bulbs.

Furthermore, prolonged periods of climatic instability can hinder operations such as seedling transplantation and crop management, requiring greater use of dry weather windows.

Among winter grains, wheat also demands attention. The increased frequency of rainfall raises disease pressure and makes management difficult during critical stages of crop development. Oat grain, in turn, can benefit from greater water availability at the beginning of the cycle, provided that prolonged periods of waterlogging do not occur. Barley, however, requires additional care regarding drainage and crop health.

Drop in garlic, onion and wheat.

Estimates indicate a decline in the state's main winter crops. For garlic, the cultivated area is expected to decrease from 747 to 647 hectares, a 13% reduction. Production is estimated at 7,3 tons, a volume 17% lower than the previous harvest. The Curitibanos region remains the main production hub, with particular emphasis on the municipalities of Fraiburgo and Frei Rogério.

In the onion sector, the drop in prices observed at the beginning of 2026, below production costs, led many producers to reduce planting. The cultivated area is expected to decrease by 9%, to 17,4 hectares. Even with an expected 1% increase in productivity, total production is expected to decrease by 9%, reaching 576,4 tons. The Ituporanga region continues to concentrate almost half of the planted area in the state.

Wheat shows the largest decline among the crops analyzed. The planted area is expected to fall by about 27%, from 104,5 to 76,2 hectares. With a slightly lower average yield, production is estimated at 271 tons, a 29% reduction compared to the previous cycle.

Oats and barley are advancing.

Conversely, oat grain is expected to expand its presence in Santa Catarina's fields. The cultivated area is estimated at approximately 37 hectares, a growth of 12,3%, driven mainly by the incorporation of new areas into the monitoring, especially in the Southern Plateau. With this, production could reach around 60 tons, a volume 12,8% higher than that recorded in the last harvest.

Barley also shows growth potential, although it remains a limited alternative in the state. The cultivated area is expected to reach 500 hectares, an increase of 13,6%, while production is estimated at approximately 2 tons, a rise of 3,8%.

Support for producers

Given the uncertainties surrounding the climate, the Secretary of State for Agriculture and Livestock, Admir Dalla Cort, highlighted that Santa Catarina has programs aimed at both recovering from losses and preventing impacts caused by extreme events. Among the initiatives mentioned are Reconstrói SC, Pronampe Agro SC Emergencial, Recupera Maçã SC, as well as the Healthy Soil Kit and Winter Cereals programs.

The president of Epagri, Dirceu Leite, stated that research and extension teams are mobilized to monitor weather conditions and guide producers. According to him, practices such as no-till farming, terracing, and constant monitoring of weather forecasts will be fundamental to reducing risks throughout the growing season.

Intelligence to guide decisions

Epagri/Cepa's estimates are constructed from information collected from extension agents, cooperatives, unions, municipalities, financial institutions, and other agents linked to the rural sector. After collection, the data undergo statistical analysis and technical validation.

According to Haroldo Tavares Elias, a Socioeconomic and Rural Development analyst at Epagri/Cepa, continuous monitoring of agricultural production is strategic for crop planning, storage, and distribution logistics, as well as for informing public policies and market decisions.

According to him, the projections make it possible to identify production trends, anticipate demands, and contribute to the formulation of more efficient actions to support the agricultural sector in Santa Catarina.