El Niño increases risk for the global coffee market in 2026.

Potential impacts on agricultural commodities are coming into focus with the increased likelihood of an El Niño event forming in the coming months. According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the United States agency responsible for climate monitoring), there is about a 60% probability of the phenomenon occurring between May and July. Models from the IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, a research center affiliated with Columbia University) indicate a similar probability in the short term and point to the event continuing until the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027.

The models do not indicate an increase in global temperature, but they do point to higher temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting the occurrence of a more intense event. This pattern could raise temperatures in different producing regions and increase risks for agriculture. For coffee, there is a potential challenge for the development of the 26/27 crop in Central and South America, Southeast Asia, and East Africa.

In Brazil, the trend is for a lower risk of frost during the winter, but, on the other hand, concerns are increasing regarding the 27/28 harvest, given higher temperatures during flowering and grain filling, as well as possible changes in rainfall patterns. If the phenomenon extends until mid-2027, the impacts could also reach other producing regions.

El Niño projections for 2026

Agricultural commodity markets may face new challenges this year with the emergence of an El Niño event, characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Projections indicate that the phenomenon may already be in effect during the first half of 2026, with a likelihood of intensification throughout the second half.

“Agricultural commodities may face higher climate risks,” says Laleska Moda, market intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets.

Analyzing sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region, model averages suggest a sharp increase in temperatures at the end of the year, potentially exceeding 1,5°C between October and November 2026, indicating a stronger event than initially predicted. For official confirmation, temperatures must remain above +0,5°C for consecutive periods.

Recent guidelines indicate similar probabilities for moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño scenarios starting in late 2026.

Impacts of El Niño on Coffee

An active El Niño that persists until early 2027 could bring record temperatures, as well as droughts or floods in several regions, increasing the risks to agricultural production. In the case of coffee, this could represent a significant challenge for the development of the 26/27 crop in important producing areas.

“In the case of coffee, this could represent a potential challenge for the development of the 26/27 crop in important producing areas, such as Central and South America, Southeast Asia and East Africa,” says Laleska Moda. “Prolonged periods of heat can also harm plant development,” she adds.

In Central America, El Niño typically leads to higher average temperatures and below-average rainfall, especially during July and August, when coffee fruits are still developing for the 26/27 crop. The phenomenon can primarily affect Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.

During the second half of the year, El Niño may also cause higher temperatures and disruptions in rainfall patterns in Colombia, potentially impacting the main 26/27 crop, while a stronger or prolonged event into early 2027 could harm the intermediate crop (mitaca).

In East Africa, the phenomenon tends to increase temperatures, but with varying effects on rainfall. In Ethiopia, it can reduce rainfall between June and September and subsequently cause excessive rainfall, harming the harvest. In Uganda, it is often associated with above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of floods and landslides.

El Niño can also cause drier and hotter conditions in Southeast Asia and India, increasing the risk of heat waves. India may face a weaker and warmer monsoon season, while in Indonesia and Vietnam the impacts tend to focus on the development of future crops, especially if the phenomenon extends into 2027.

In Brazil, an active El Niño may initially reduce the risk of frost during the winter of 2026, but it could also pose challenges later in the year, during the development of the 27/28 crop season.

Although the phenomenon has less direct correlation with rainfall patterns in the country's main coffee-growing regions, it can delay the start of spring rains and negatively affect the production cycle.

Despite expectations of a record Brazilian harvest in 2026/27, which tends to put pressure on prices in the short term, the weather scenario may limit more pronounced downward movements. "The potential impacts of El Niño could limit deeper market corrections at the end of the year," says Laleska Moda.