El Niño increases attention to the start of soybean planting in Mato Grosso.

With the end of the soybean planting ban, scheduled for September 6th in Mato Grosso, producers are entering the final stretch of preparation for the 2026/27 harvest. Despite the authorization to plant, weather conditions are expected to be crucial for the progress of sowing. The expectation is that producers will remain cautious and wait for rainfall to become more regular before intensifying fieldwork, especially given the influence of El Niño.

The superintendent of the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), Cleiton Gauer, emphasizes that producers need to assess the conditions of their property before deciding when to start planting.

 “The producer needs to be careful and observe the moisture and rainfall conditions before putting the seed in the soil. The end of the sanitary break allows planting, but this does not mean that it is the ideal time to sow. It is important to assess the conditions to ensure good crop establishment and avoid costs with possible replanting,” warns Cleiton.

For the 2026/27 harvest, Imea projects a soybean production of 48.882.049 tons in Mato Grosso. The estimate considers different variables, including climate prospects, historical productivity, management practices, and the level of technology adopted by producers.

According to Imea's market intelligence analyst, Henrique Eggers, the combined analysis of these factors allows for an estimation of crop performance in different regions of the state. Despite the authorization to plant in September, the trend is for producers to maintain the behavior observed in other years and wait for the rains to become more regular, especially in the second half of the month.

"More important than the occurrence of the first rainfalls is the confirmation of sufficient and regular volumes to guarantee the proper establishment of the crops," explains Henrique.

The greater climatic instability predicted for the beginning of the next harvest season may delay the most significant progress in planting. This concern is reinforced by the experience of the 2023/24 harvest, also marked by the influence of El Niño. In that cycle, irregular rainfall compromised crop establishment and contributed to soybeans registering the lowest average productivity in the last ten years in Mato Grosso.

Among the main challenges faced by producers in recent years are dry spells during critical crop phases, such as flowering, pod formation, and grain filling. Isolated rains followed by dry periods can also harm germination and initial plant development, increasing the need for replanting.

High temperatures can intensify soil water loss and cause heat stress, while excessive rainfall can lead to waterlogging, erosion, and loss of soil and nutrients. At harvest time, high rainfall volumes increase the risk of losses and reduced grain quality.

Weather conditions can also affect the planting schedule for second-crop plantings. Any delays in soybean sowing or harvesting reduce the window available for planting corn, cotton, and other crops.

“It is still too early to determine the pace of planting in each region of Mato Grosso. Imea will monitor the progress of the work, the weather conditions, and the situation in the different regions of the state on a weekly basis,” Henrique points out.

Monitoring is essential for controlling Asian soybean rust.

Even with the end of the fallow period, crop monitoring remains crucial for disease control. Asian soybean rust, caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, remains one of the main threats to the crop and requires constant monitoring.

According to Eggers, phytosanitary management should be adjusted to the reality of each property, considering the productive potential of the areas, local climatic conditions, and the level of infestation.

Monitoring allows for the early identification of problems and the selection of more efficient control measures. This strategy becomes even more important in a high-cost environment, as management decisions have a direct impact on productivity, input costs, and the profitability of the activity.