El Niño gains strength in August and requires climate planning

The influence of El Niño is expected to mark the Brazilian climate this August with regional contrasts relevant to the decision-making of companies in different sectors. According to Climatempo, the rapid and consistent warming of the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean indicates an event with the potential for strong to very strong intensity, whose influence tends to increase throughout the spring and early summer of the 2026/2027 season.

The main sign of the phenomenon will be the combination of above-average rainfall in the South of the country, the risk of storms and severe weather events, and the persistence of hot and dry days in much of the Midwest, the interior of the Northeast, and areas of the North. This scenario reinforces the need for preventive climate risk management in agricultural, logistics, energy, industrial, retail, financial, and infrastructure operations.

“El Niño does not impact Brazil uniformly, so the challenge in August will be excessive rainfall, flooding, logistical delays, and damage to assets for some businesses. For others, it will be persistent heat, low humidity, increased risk of wildfires, and pressure on productivity, occupational health, and energy demand. The key point is to transform climate forecasting into operational planning,” says Vitor Hassan, Head of Business at Climatempo.

Rain in the South that could affect certain areas.

In the South, the forecast indicates above-normal rainfall in all three states, with particular attention to Rio Grande do Sul, which already experienced flooding in July. Storms, wind gusts, hail, and high accumulated precipitation may affect activities such as road transport, warehousing, construction, insurance, agribusiness, energy distribution, and impact the operational continuity of industrial plants.

In the Southeast and Midwest regions, many hot and dry days are expected to prevail, with humidity levels potentially dropping below 20% in some areas. Even so, the passage of cold fronts at the beginning and end of the month may bring rain to parts of São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, southern and western Mato Grosso, the Triângulo Mineiro region, southern Minas Gerais, the Zona da Mata region, Rio de Janeiro, and southern Espírito Santo.

In the Northeast, the trend is for predominantly strong sunshine and dry weather inland, with rain more restricted to the coastal strip between southern Bahia and Rio Grande do Norte. In the North, there is a possibility of slightly above-normal rainfall in areas of Pará, Rondônia, and Acre, while northern Amazonas and Roraima should have below-average volumes.

Most noticeable impacts

In this El Niño-influenced scenario, the impacts will be felt across various sectors, particularly agribusiness. Excessive rainfall in the South could compromise planting, harvesting, management, storage, and transportation windows for grains, while heat and low humidity in other regions increase the demand for irrigation, soil management, and monitoring of water stress in crops.

In the energy sector, high temperatures tend to increase electricity consumption for cooling, while irregular rainfall can alter reservoir dynamics, hydroelectric generation, transmission, and network maintenance, especially in areas prone to storms and strong winds.

In the logistics and infrastructure sector, storms in the South and instability associated with cold fronts in the south-central region of the country may affect highways, ports, airports, distribution centers, construction projects, and delivery schedules. Companies with national supply chains should review routes, safety stocks, and contingency plans.

In areas of the Northern region, where rainfall is expected to be below average, the possibility of drought also raises concerns about reduced river levels, which could hinder navigation on important waterways in the region.

Since a significant portion of the transportation of goods, fuel, and food depends on the Amazonian rivers, any restrictions on vessel traffic could increase logistics costs, lengthen delivery times, and affect the supply of goods to communities, industrial operations, port activities, and local production chains.

Sectors such as retail, industry, and services will be most impacted by the persistent heat, low humidity, and abrupt weather variations, which influence consumer flow, seasonal sales, demand for air conditioning, the productivity of field teams, building maintenance, and occupational health and safety management.

The increased frequency of extreme events further amplifies the need for climate analysis in risk pricing for credit granting, influencing the management of portfolios exposed to agriculture, infrastructure, and the supply chain, and affecting insurance, credit, and corporate finance.

Climatempo's recommendation, therefore, is that companies monitor frequent weather forecast updates and climate monitoring, especially in sectors sensitive to factors such as rain, temperature, humidity, wind, lightning, wildfires, and navigability conditions. Incorporating meteorological intelligence into planning processes allows for reduced losses, protection of people and assets, inventory adjustments, anticipation of disruptions, and improved operational resilience.

“More than a climatic phenomenon, El Niño is an economic and operational risk factor. In August, its effects begin to appear more clearly in Brazil, requiring organizations to have a regionalized understanding of the climate and quick responses to a business environment increasingly exposed to extreme weather events,” concludes Vitor Hassan.