Due to tariffs and delays, Brazil will export less coffee in 2025.

Brazilian coffee exports reached 4,1 million 60-kilo bags in October, according to a monthly update released by Rabobank Brazil. This volume represents a 10% increase compared to September, but remains 20% lower than that recorded in the same month of 2024. The report was prepared by sector analyst Guilherme Morya.

From January to October, the country shipped a total that is also 20% lower than that observed last year. Performance continues to be affected by logistical bottlenecks in Brazilian ports, as already pointed out by Cecafé, and by the 50% tariffs applied by the United States to Brazilian coffee since August.

Between August and October, exports to the American market totaled 984 bags — a 52% drop compared to the same period in 2024. The decline was expected after the tariffs came into effect, which increased the price of Brazilian grain in its main destination.

On Friday (14), however, the US government announced a list of agricultural products that will be exempt from the so-called “reciprocal tariffs”, including coffee. The measure is retroactive and came into effect on November 13, with the aim of reducing costs for the final consumer.

Despite this, there are still uncertainties regarding the application of the exemption to Brazilian coffee. Preliminary information indicates that only the reciprocal tariff of 10% would be suspended, while the punitive tariff of 40% remains in effect. Negotiations between authorities of the two countries continue, and the sector is monitoring the possibility of a broader bilateral agreement.

According to Rabobank, the decision brings some relief to the supply in the US market, as the industry only had stocks until November before making new purchases. However, if the additional 40% tariff is maintained, the impacts on the supply chain are expected to persist in the coming months.