Snow drought threatens winter wheat productivity in the Northern Hemisphere. Research indicates an increase in the frequency of these events between 1960 and 2020. The phenomenon reduces thermal protection and water supply for the crop, thus increasing the risks of cold damage and water stress.
The study involved scientists from The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, the University of Hong Kong, and the University of California, Irvine. The team analyzed winter wheat-producing areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The proportion of crops affected by snow drought increased from 46% to 54% between 1960 and 1970 to 70% to 99% between 2010 and 2020.
Researchers used explainable machine learning, grid-based productivity data, and a standardized snow water equivalent index. The analysis assessed the sensitivity of winter wheat productivity to snow variation between 1982 and 2016. The work indicates a significant increase in this sensitivity in more than 25% of cultivated areas in the Northern Hemisphere.
According to scientists, about 45% of the crops evaluated suffered significant negative impacts from the snow drought. Europe, Central Asia, and the United States experienced the most severe effects. In East Asia, productivity gains linked to longer growing seasons have been diminishing.
The team identified three main factors contributing to the increased sensitivity of winter wheat: greater fertilizer use, intensified freezing stress, and a slight reduction in precipitation. Higher soil nutrient levels can promote growth. However, they also increase the crop's dependence on water and thermal insulation provided by snow cover.
Scientists recommend varieties with tolerance to cold and drought. They also advocate for more precise and sustainable nutritional management. Monitoring snow cover should be integrated into risk assessment and agricultural alert systems.
Further information at doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01302-7
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