Drought threatens soybean harvest in the South, says EarthDaily

EarthDaily Agro, a company specializing in satellite-based agricultural monitoring, warns of the risk of crop failure in the southern region of Brazil due to persistent drought. Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná have been experiencing low rainfall since December, with clear impacts on crop conditions, as indicated by the vegetation index (NDVI).

“Despite the challenging scenario in the southern region of Brazil, the ECMWF and GFS models present an optimistic outlook for some areas of the soybean zone, indicating the occurrence of above-average rainfall in several regions of Brazil in the coming days. This condition has the potential to benefit areas affected by drought. In Mato Grosso, the lower-than-average rainfall volume may contribute to field operations (soybean harvest and planting of second-crop corn),” comments Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily Agro.

Crop conditions

In Rio Grande do Sul, soil moisture has decreased drastically in recent weeks, and even with rain forecast in the coming days, the expected volume seems insufficient to restore crop conditions. NDVI shows signs of deterioration, although at better levels than in the critical years of 2022 and 2023.

Until mid-December, the volume of rainfall in Santa Catarina was considered satisfactory. However, the drought gained strength in January, causing a clear deterioration in the NDVI, although it is at higher levels than in 2022.

In Paraná, since the end of December, crops have shown negative dynamics in the vegetation index, indicating a possible crop failure for the current cycle.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the accumulated rainfall since December 15 is reminiscent of the bad years of 2022 and 2024, both marked by crop failures. The NDVI in the state indicates worse conditions than those recorded in 2024, when there was a 15% loss in productivity.

The states of Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais present optimistic prospects regarding production potential, with the NDVI indicating good crop development.

In Mato Grosso, the NDVI shows a favorable evolution, superior to the performance observed in the 2023 cycle, a year in which productivity was 7% higher than the historical trend. Based on the most recent data, productivity is estimated at 3,91 tons per hectare, which, if confirmed, will represent a record for the state.

Another highlight in the production scenario is Bahia, which projects record productivity of 4,8 tons per hectare, representing an increase of 27% in relation to the previous cycle.