Drought in the country's crops favors the corn market in Mato Grosso.

The drought scenario faced by several Brazilian states should increase the demand for corn in the 2025/26 harvest in Mato Grosso. This is what the new Supply and Demand bulletin from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), published on Monday (June 1st), indicates.

Currently, states like Goiás, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo are facing drought affecting their crops. Given this scenario, Imea projects that demand for the grain should increase in the state of Mato Grosso.

Interstate corn consumption for the 2025/26 crop year was estimated at 9,15 million tons. According to the institute's bulletin, this revision reflects the expectation of a greater need for supply from regions impacted by adverse weather conditions, given that they are expected to have a reduction in the productive potential of crops affected by the lack of rain.

In addition to interstate demand, the domestic market continues to expand in Mato Grosso. Consumption within the state was projected at 22,10 million tons, thus estimating an increase of 11,67% compared to the 2024/25 harvest.

“The main factor behind this growth is the consolidation of corn agro-industrialization in Mato Grosso, driven primarily by the expansion of the animal protein chain, i.e., animal consumption and livestock intensification, and by the advancement of the corn ethanol industry,” highlighted Rodrigo Silva, coordinator of agricultural market intelligence at Imea.

According to the report, the start of operations at two new plants in the state is altering the dynamics of the regional market, expanding the grain's absorption capacity and sustaining domestic demand.

For the 2025/26 corn crop, international shipments were estimated at 23,10 million tons, a decrease of -4,47% compared to the projection for the 2024/25 crop.

As a consequence of increased demand, the state's ending stocks continue to decline. Imea estimates that Mato Grosso will end the harvest with only 620,5 tons in stock, a figure 17,29% lower than previously predicted.

Production Estimate

Also in this June 2026 report, Imea revised upwards the average corn productivity in the state, which is now estimated at 120,28 sacks per hectare. This represents an increase of 1,32% compared to the previous survey.

The review was based on field surveys conducted by the Imea in the Field Project, as well as information collected from partners. The surveys also indicated that most crops in the state show good vegetative development and favorable production conditions, contributing to an increase in the state's productive potential.

Among the regions with the best performance are the Mid-North, with an estimated productivity of 125,61 sacks per hectare, followed by the Northwest, with 121,10 sacks per hectare, and the West, with 120,82 sacks per hectare.

With the cultivated area remaining at 7,39 million hectares and average productivity increasing, the state's production estimate was revised to 53,35 million tons. This volume represents a monthly growth of 1,32% and maintains Mato Grosso's leadership in national corn production.