Drought and reduction in area reduce corn production in the European Union

European Union (EU) corn production for the 2025/26 crop year is expected to reach 58 million tons, according to estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This represents a 2% reduction compared to the previous crop year and a 3% drop compared to last month's projection. Production is 7% below the five-year average.

The harvested area was estimated at 8,1 million hectares. This figure is 2% lower than last month and 8% lower than the previous year. Average yield was projected at 7,21 tons per hectare. Despite a slight decrease compared to the previous month, the yield exceeds the 6,81 tons per hectare of the last harvest and the five-year average of 7,06 tons per hectare.

The reduction in acreage follows a trend. EU farmers have been replacing corn with winter crops or sunflowers, which tolerate dry conditions better. This trend is most evident in southeastern Europe, where irrigation is scarce and heat waves are frequent.

Romania and Bulgaria, which faced some of the worst harvests last year, started 2025 with positive expectations due to spring rains. However, drought during the pollination period in July hampered production potential. Satellite images confirm poor crop conditions during the corn reproductive period in the region.

Romania saw the largest reduction among EU countries, with a 1,4 million ton cut in its estimated production and a 150-hectare reduction in area. Hungary saw its production reduced by 1,1 million tonnes and its area reduced by 100 hectares. In Bulgaria, the decline was 500 tonnes and 60 hectares.

Conversely, France saw its production estimate increase by 500 tons, expanding its planted area by 75 hectares. The country remains the EU's largest corn producer, with a projected 13,3 million tons, followed by Poland (8,6 million tons) and Romania (7,7 million tons).

Corn production in Ukraine grows

Ukraine is expected to harvest 32 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 season, according to estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This represents a 19% increase over the previous season and a 5% increase compared to last month's projection.

Average yield was projected at 7,27 tons per hectare, virtually unchanged from the last report, but 11% higher than the previous harvest. Harvested area was estimated at 4,4 million hectares, 5% higher than the previous forecast and 7% higher than the previous harvest.

The increase in area is due to updated data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), which reported higher figures than those from the country's Ministry of Agriculture. Because the USDA considers harvested area, the estimate was adjusted for possible losses due to abandonment.

The estimates do not cover all of Ukraine. The information refers only to regions outside the conflict zone. The war zones, including Crimea, do not have official data from the Ministry of Agriculture. For Crimea, the USDA uses data from the Russian statistics agency (Rosstat).

Ukrainian corn is currently in the reproductive phase. Growing conditions are favorable in the north of the country. In the south, heat and drought threaten crop development.