Drought affects part of the safrinha corn zone and frost is forecast

The second harvest corn zone is expected to face new climate adversities in the coming days, according to an assessment by EarthDaily Agro, a company that monitors agricultural areas based on satellite image analysis. With rainfall below 5 millimeters (mm) in the last 10 days, the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso recorded rainfall 60% to 80% below the average for the period. From the beginning of March until May 4, accumulated precipitation was the lowest during this period in the last 10 years.

This volume is insufficient to meet the water demand of crops. In Goiás, the NDVI (vegetation vigor) has shown rapid deterioration in recent days, which indicates unfavorable conditions, and soil moisture is expected to continue falling, according to the European model (ECMWF).

The European model (ECMWF) points out that water stress will remain in Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais for the next ten days, further reducing the productive potential of crops. An accumulation of up to 5 mm is expected for practically the entire off-season corn zone during this period and, as a result, soil moisture is expected to remain 10% to 40% below average in the three states, creating an unfavorable scenario for development. of productive areas.

In addition to the drought, both the European and American models (GFS) point to a cold wave in the coming days for the entire off-season corn zone. In Mato Grosso and Goiás, minimum temperatures should vary from 10°C to 20°C, however in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, minimum temperatures should reach 6°C to 14°C. There is a risk of frost in southern Paraná, with temperatures of 6°C, damaging crops.

For Mato Grosso, while the European model continues to indicate low precipitation for the next two weeks, the American model (GFS) indicates good rains from the 9th, extending until May 18th. Vegetation indices have been showing deterioration for a few weeks and the greater volume of rain should alleviate water stress, if the GFS forecast comes true. On the other hand, if the ECMWF forecast is considered, soil moisture should remain well below average, which could limit the productive potential of crops.