The dollar, climate, and geopolitics are expected to dictate the direction of commodities

The unfolding war in the Middle East, the maintenance of restrictive financial conditions in the world's major economies, and the possibility of a strong and historically significant El Niño event should be among the main factors influencing global commodity markets in the third quarter of 2026. In an environment marked by geopolitical volatility, high interest rates, a strengthening dollar, and increasing attention to weather conditions, companies and participants in commodity supply chains need to closely monitor the risks and opportunities that may affect prices, margins, and trade flows in the coming months.

To analyze this scenario and its implications for different markets, StoneX launches this Tuesday (7) the 36th edition of the Quarterly Outlook Report for Commodities. The publication brings together analyses for the grains and oilseeds, fertilizers, energy, soft commodities, metals and exchange rate segments.

Prepared by StoneX's Market Intelligence team in Brazil, with the collaboration of company experts from different regions of the world, the study presents the main factors that should guide the dynamics of commodities throughout the second half of the year.

Study objective and scope of analysis

“We entered the third quarter in a highly complex environment for global markets. Geopolitics, monetary policy, and climate continue to exert simultaneous influence on commodity prices, requiring heightened attention from companies and participants in the production chains. Our report seeks precisely to translate these movements and identify the factors that may generate risks or opportunities in the coming months,” says Vitor Andrioli, Market Intelligence Manager at StoneX.

In the grains and oilseeds market, StoneX highlights that, despite comfortable short-term supply, prices should continue to respond to the development of the North American crop. The start of summer with high temperatures in the United States and important producing regions of Europe increases the risks to crop productivity and keeps market participants' attention focused on the weather. Furthermore, the still high costs of fertilizers and energy may influence planting decisions for the next crop in the Southern Hemisphere.

In the fertilizer sector, the resumption of Chinese urea exports and the reduction of tensions in the Middle East tend to offer more favorable conditions for buyers. Even so, StoneX notes that normalization is expected to occur unevenly across segments. While nitrogen fertilizers may continue to find support from demand from major consumers such as Brazil and India, phosphate fertilizers remain pressured by sulfur supply restrictions and the persistence of high production costs.

In the energy sector, the expectation is that the effects of the war involving Iran will continue to influence the market over the next few months. Despite the recent stabilization of oil prices, the recovery in global supply is gradual, while demand remains supported by the recovery in Asian consumption and the high activity of US refineries. This scenario may keep the balance between supply and demand relatively tight during the second half of the year.

Among soft commodities, StoneX projects an environment of distinct behaviors. In cotton, the combination of lower global production and greater dynamism in Asian demand favors price support. In coffee, the arrival of the record Brazilian harvest should increase the availability of the product and exert pressure on prices, although reduced stocks, harvest delays, and weather risks continue to support the market. Sugar continues to be influenced by a comfortable supply in the Brazilian Center-South, while cocoa is beginning to show signs of greater balance, driven by the recovery of production in West Africa, although volatility remains high.

In precious metals, gold and silver remain sensitive to the balance between geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's more stringent stance. For industrial metals, demand associated with artificial intelligence, the energy transition, and the formation of strategic reserves continues to support prices, although high interest rates, a strengthening dollar, and mixed signals from global industrial activity limit more significant upward movements.

Exchange rate: interest rate differential supports strong dollar.

In the foreign exchange market, StoneX assesses that the behavior of the USD/BRL should continue to be influenced by the convergence between the monetary policies of the United States and Brazil as an upward factor for the American currency. The maintenance — or eventual increase — of US interest rates, combined with the expectation of further cuts in the Selic rate, tends to favor the appreciation of the American currency against the real in the coming months.

“The strengthening of the dollar and the climate outlook for the 2026/27 crop are two issues that deserve special attention this quarter. Both have the potential to generate significant impacts on costs, margins, and price formation in different commodity chains,” adds Andrioli.

Published since 2015, the Quarterly Commodity Outlook is prepared by StoneX's Market Intelligence team in Brazil, with collaboration from company experts in the United Kingdom, Paraguay, Argentina, China, and the United States. The report offers an integrated view of the factors that may influence agricultural, energy, metals, and emerging currency markets in the short term, supporting companies and market participants in making strategic decisions.