Dependence on China raises alert in South Mato Grosso's agricultural sector.

Mato Grosso do Sul's dependence on the Chinese market has returned to the center of economic discussions following increased tensions between China, Taiwan, and the United States. This topic is highlighted in Economic Bulletin 02/2026, published by Aprosoja/MS.

The document, prepared by analysts Raphael Flores Gimenes and Linneu Borges Filho, shows that approximately 84,3% of the soybeans exported by the state have China as their main destination. This means that any instability involving the Asian country can directly affect agriculture in Mato Grosso do Sul, mainly in terms of production costs and crop marketing.

In addition to grain exports, the survey highlights that Brazil also depends on imports of fertilizers and agricultural inputs linked to Asian international trade. Among the main suppliers are Canada (14%), Russia (14%), and China (12%).

According to an analysis by Aprosoja/MS, even without a direct conflict, an increase in tensions in the region could lead to higher maritime freight costs, a stronger dollar, and higher prices for fertilizers, pesticides, and fuels used in agriculture.

The study also points to possible repercussions such as increased production costs, greater volatility in soybean and corn prices, pressure on producers' financial planning, and higher prices for dollar-denominated agricultural inputs.

On the other hand, the material also highlights that Brazil can expand its position as a strategic supplier to China, especially in a scenario of reduced Chinese dependence on American products.

According to economic analysts at Aprosoja/MS, the main challenge for rural producers will be keeping up with the terms of trade, operational costs, and financial capacity in a scenario of greater international volatility.