Delay in the second corn crop sustains the reaction of corn, assesses Itaú BBA.

The delay in planting the second corn crop in Brazil has increased the crop's exposure to climate risks and heightened its dependence on rainfall conditions in April and May, a critical period for grain filling, according to an analysis by Itaú BBA.

The outlook indicates more irregular rainfall throughout the fall, with a tendency to gradually decrease, especially from May onwards. This scenario increases the risk of water stress, particularly in areas sown later. In regions such as Goiás, Matopiba, and part of Mato Grosso do Sul, the combination of late planting and a shortened rainy season could limit yield potential. In Mato Grosso, where planting was earlier, exposure to climate risk is lower, although it still depends on rainfall distribution.

Monitoring of second-crop planting was below the historical average for part of February, reflecting delays in the soybean harvest in several regions of the Midwest. In Goiás, approximately 70% of the area is expected to be planted outside the ideal window, increasing the risk of adverse weather conditions. In Mato Grosso, this percentage is estimated at around 18%.

In the international market, corn prices showed a slight decline throughout February, still supported by the pace of exports from the United States. During this period, prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0,4%, to US$ 4,29 per bushel. The market also began to incorporate the risks associated with the supply from South America, especially given the delay in planting the second corn crop in Brazil.

In early March, prices rose again, following the increase in oil and soybean prices, which helped sustain the price rebound.

In the Brazilian market, corn prices fell in February, pressured by the greater availability of the summer crop, especially in the South and Southeast regions. In Sorriso (MT), the monthly average was R$ 46,60 per sack, a 9% drop compared to January. In the first part of March, prices show recovery. In Campinas (SP), the increase is 3,5%, with prices around R$ 70 per sack, reflecting external factors and uncertainties related to the second crop.