Default rates reach 8,3% of the rural population in the 3rd quarter of 2025.

Data from Serasa Experian indicates that 8,3% of the rural population was in default in the third quarter of 2025. Compared to the same period in 2024, the increase was 0,9%, while in the quarterly analysis (2nd quarter 25 vs. 3rd quarter 25), the increase was only 0,2%, a trend that indicates a slowdown for the sector. 

According to Marcelo Pimenta, head of agribusiness at Serasa Experian, delinquency continues to increase gradually. "Even with some stabilization in parts of the sector, many producers continue to operate with tight margins and a pressured cash flow within a context that maintains high costs, volatile prices, and more selective credit granting," he explains. 

The data also showed that rural producers "without rural registration information" – potential tenants or participants in family/economic groups – continue to have the highest percentage of default, at 10,8%. Next are large landowners, with 9,6%, medium-sized landowners, who scored 8,1%, and small landowners, with 7,8%.

Rural default rates are high.

The index showed that rural default is mainly concentrated in debts contracted with "financial institutions," which reached 7,3%. Debts directly related to "creditors of the agricultural sector itself" represented only 0,3%, meaning that loans originating directly from the sector have almost zero default rates.

In "other sectors," it corresponds to 0,2%. According to the datatech company, the percentages reflect default rates by type of creditor, and not the distribution of the same volume of debt, indicating that the risk is more associated with the financial system than with commercial relationships within the agribusiness chain itself.

Despite the low incidence, the amounts involved are high. During the same period, the average debt of defaulters with financial institutions reached R$ 100,5, while in the agricultural sector it reached R$ 130,3, a level higher than that observed in other sectors related to agriculture, including non-life insurance, cargo transportation and storage (R$ 31,7).

“The profile of rural credit, characterized by higher loan amounts, longer terms, and greater financial exposure, means that a few defaulters concentrate significant amounts of debt, increasing the risk even in a scenario of relatively controlled interest rates,” Pimenta explains.

More experienced producers are less likely to default.

The age-based assessment revealed that the segment of the rural population aged 80 and over has the lowest default rate. On the other hand, those aged 30 to 39 were the most delinquent, at 12,7%. 

The Southern region performs better. 

Among the country's regions, the South had the lowest percentage of defaults in the third quarter of 2025, at 5,5%. The Southeast comes next, with 7,0%. Then come the Central-West (9,4%), the Northeast (9,7%) and the North (12,4%).

Looking at the data by Federative Unit (UF), Rio Grande do Sul performed best, with a delinquency rate of only 5,1%, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. On the other hand, Amapá registered the highest percentage, at 19,8%.

“The result in Rio Grande do Sul is surprising given the losses from drought and floods in the region in recent years. However, there is a combination of structural and cyclical factors that explain this performance,” he states. According to Pimenta, “Rio Grande do Sul has a strong presence of cooperatives and integrated systems, such as soybeans, corn, livestock, and milk, which offer technical and financial support to rural producers. The state also has more intensive use of agricultural insurance and climate risk mitigation instruments, in addition to policies and financing lines for debt extension and renegotiation,” he concludes.