Cotton production in China faces decline in 2023/24

China's cotton production for the 2023/24 marketing year is projected at 27 million 480-pound bales (5,88 million metric tons) by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), representing a 2% decline in compared to the previous month. The current forecast is 12% lower than the previous year's production and 5% below the five-year average of 28,5 million bales.

Harvested area is estimated at 2,9 million hectares, a 2% decrease from the previous month, 6% lower than the previous year and 10% below the five-year average of 3,24 million hectares. The expectation of a smaller planted area is attributed to a reduction in the projected area in Xinjiang.

The cotton yield forecast is close to the long-term trend value, set at 2.027 kg per hectare, slightly lower than last month, 6% below the previous year's record yield of 2.156 kg/ha, but still 6% above the five-year average of 1.921 kg/ha. The likely cause for the lower yield is the cold and cloudy weather in Xinjiang during May.

Most of China's cotton is produced in Xinjiang, where yields are almost double those achieved in other parts of the country. On average, 90% of the country's total cotton production comes from this province.

The cotton growing season in China runs from April to October. In Xinjiang, planting begins in April and ends in mid-May. In the Yellow and Yangtze river basins, planting extends from late April to May.

So far, the 2023/24 growing season has presented favorable conditions, with moist soil and good water availability for irrigation. However, the low temperatures in April and May in Xinjiang are a cause for concern. These cold conditions likely resulted in delayed planting and slow crop growth. In some areas, these temperatures may have required significant replanting, as cotton is sensitive to low temperatures, affecting potential yield.

Xinjiang farmers are still incentivized by government subsidies based on the target cotton price. According to information published by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on March 26, 2020, this subsidy will continue until 2023. Cotton production in Xinjiang reached extraordinarily high levels in 2022/23. Thus, much of the projected decline in Chinese production is due to expected declines in Xinjiang yields and the modest reduction in planted area.