Cotton harvest advances in Mato Grosso

The cotton harvest is taking place in Mato Grosso, the main producer. By the beginning of the third week of July, 7,15% of the sown area had been harvested, according to data from IMEA - Instituto Mato Grossense de Economia Agropecuária.

The pace of work is advanced compared to last harvest, when 4,74% had been harvested by mid-July. The positive price and economic return scenario in the last cycle encouraged an increase in the area sown in the current season. For the 2018/19 harvest, the estimated area occupied by cotton increased by 35% in Mato Grosso, according to IMEA. 

The expectation is for a 35,4% increase in Mato Grosso's fiber production, going from 1,35 million tons in 2017/18 to 1,85 million tons in this harvest. 

Meteorologist analysis

August starts cold in areas of central-south and west of Mato Grosso. The passage of a cold front associated with a strong mass of polar air promises to bring down the temperature in many agricultural cities in Mato Grosso. The cotton bolls are already open, so this August cold won't have much of an influence. Typically, the cold delays harvesting when the cotton is not yet open. What could influence the harvest at this time is the humidity, which will be higher between the 02nd and 04th of August, comments Climatempo agrometeorologist Tatiane Cravo.  

Projections indicate that at least until August 09th and 10th, low temperatures will be observed in producing areas in the center south, west and on the border with Rondônia. 

After this period, the tendency is for the temperature to rise, especially the maximum temperature with hotter and drier afternoons. There is no expectation of significant rain for Mato Grosso until the end of August. Attention turns to a higher incidence of fires, warns the agrometeorologist.     

Brazilian cottonseed production  

Regarding Brazilian cottonseed production, the expectation is 3,95 million tons this year, compared to the 3 million tons originated in the last harvest. Increase of 32,9% (Conab). 

Based on this greater supply, the expectation is for soft prices for cottonseed this year, compared to last year. Another important point is the lower pressure on the prices of soybean meal in 2019, which also reflects in less pressure on the prices of other concentrated protein foods.

According to a survey by Scot Consultoria, in the first fortnight of July, a ton of cotton seed is quoted, on average, at R$380,00 in Mato Grosso, a drop of 5,8% compared to last June and 18,6% lower compared to July 2018.

In São Paulo, the seed is priced, on average, at R$723,75 per ton, 3,4% below the same period in 2018. 

exchange ratio 

The exchange ratio with the input improved. Considering the price of the arroba of cattle in São Paulo, 4,61 arrobas of cattle are needed to purchase one ton of cottonseed, an improvement of 0,3% in the cattle farmer's purchasing power compared to June this year . 

Since the beginning of the year, the exchange ratio has improved by 5,9%. Cottonseed production will be record. With the harvest underway, the expectation is for loose prices in the short and medium term. For the livestock farmer, the time is opportune to purchase food.

It is important, however, to analyze the availability of the product in the region and its feasibility of use, depending on shipping.