Costs and weather challenge the profitability of second-crop corn.

The shortened weather window, caused by the delay in the 25/26 soybean harvest, created a more restrictive environment for the development of the second corn crop in Brazil. Added to the high structural costs of logistics and transportation, this scenario reduces the financial leeway of rural producers and reshapes the supply flow of strategic sectors, such as the animal protein and ethanol industries.

The impact of the reduced planting window was not uniform, but it significantly affected states that are strategic for national production. Regions such as Goiás, northwestern Minas Gerais, and parts of Mato Grosso, like the Xingu region, registered significant losses in their ideal planting windows. As a consequence, there was a reduction in the planted area, with migration to other crops, and a drop in corn productivity. 

“This localized disruption alters the supply dynamics in regions that are also major consumers of the grain. With lower availability, the trend is that meat and corn ethanol industries will need to pay higher premiums to secure the product in the domestic market, or even seek the grain in other regions and states,” explains Yedda Monteiro, intelligence and strategy analyst at Biond Agro.

Faced with downward pressure on corn prices, producers have been reducing sales of the grain. To free up warehouse space during the peak harvest, farmers have prioritized selling soybeans. The expectation is that the corn market will gain momentum between mid-August and September, a period in which export programs and purchases by the domestic industry tend to intensify.

Despite losses recorded in some regions due to water deficits during critical stages of crop development, the overall climate scenario was more favorable than in previous harvests, supporting a positive outlook for national production. Even so, as the second corn crop harvest has not yet reached its peak, the market may face an additional period of price pressure before the expected recovery driven by increased exports and a domestic rebound.

In addition to the behavior of the physical market, crop profitability continues to be pressured by high production costs. Expenses related to logistics, diesel, and transportation reduce farm margins, making producers more vulnerable to any further adversity.

Climate risk

While the current season's second-crop corn faced localized losses caused by water deficits during critical stages such as tasseling and grain filling, harvesting is already underway, shielding this crop from the impacts of a likely El Niño in the second half of the year. However, the phenomenon raises an alert for the 2026/27 summer crop, especially for soybeans. El Niño tends to cause irregular rainfall in the Central-North region of the country and excessive precipitation in the South, which could compromise planting and the initial development of crops in the next cycle.

"For many years, producers were able to compensate for planting delays or adverse weather events with a certain predictability of the seasons. Today, that safety margin is decreasing. A decision made a few days outside the ideal window can mean greater exposure to droughts or frosts. Climate risk has ceased to be an exception and has become part of business management," assesses Yedda.

Given this scenario, the expert emphasizes that decisions based on planning and market analysis are becoming increasingly strategic. Developing realistic budgets, considering different cost scenarios and price fluctuations, helps producers reduce their exposure to risks and preserve profitability.

"The dividing line between properties that will prosper and those that will face financial difficulties will be management capacity. It's not necessarily about who produces the most, but who can plan best. Producers who continue to make decisions based solely on expectations of higher prices or repeating past strategies may face a much more challenging environment," he points out.

Efficient marketing should not aim for the unlikely "top of the market," but prioritize capturing profitable opportunities that guarantee liquidity. Securing resources in a planned manner allows the producer to honor their commitments, acquire inputs at the right time, and begin the next cycle more protected against market and weather uncertainties.