Corn prices rose in March, supported by oil prices, and fell in April

Corn prices rose in March in both international and domestic markets, supported by rising oil prices and uncertainties related to the geopolitical landscape and production costs. However, this upward trend lost momentum in early April due to falling oil prices and seasonal factors in Brazil.

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), corn registered an average increase of 5,3% in March, to USD 4,53 per bushel. Support came mainly from higher oil prices, which improve margins for ethanol plants in the United States and consequently increase demand for corn. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East and input costs kept the market attentive to the risks for the 2026/27 crop.

In April, however, the external scenario changed. The fall in oil prices, coupled with signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran, reduced the premium for corn via ethanol and put downward pressure on prices. On average during the first half of the month, prices fell 0,5%, to USD 4,50 per bushel.

In Brazil, corn also saw a price increase in March, following external trends and reflecting internal factors. Delays in planting in some regions of the second crop, more limited supply from producers—still focused on harvesting the summer crop—and concerns about rising logistics costs due to increased diesel and freight prices all contributed to the price hike. In Campinas, prices rose 4,4% during the month, to R$ 71 per sack.

In early April, however, the domestic market began to come under pressure. The progress of the first harvest, improved weather conditions for the second harvest, and the appreciation of the real reduced export parity, weakening business at the ports. With buyers better supplied and acting cautiously, prices in Campinas fell below R$ 70 per sack in the first half of the month.

According to Itaú BBA, despite recent pressure, the second crop is developing positively. Recent rains have alleviated water stress in regions such as western Paraná. Currently, most crops are in the vegetative phase, while about a third of the area, concentrated in Mato Grosso, has entered the flowering stage, a phase more sensitive to water availability.