Corn production hits record high in Mato Grosso, while soybeans remain affected by the weather.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) released new market reports for soybeans and corn, highlighting the growth in domestic demand for the grain in Mato Grosso and the international market's attention to weather conditions in the United States, a factor that continues to influence the outlook for soybeans.

In the case of soybeans, Imea points out that the high temperatures recorded in recent weeks in the United States have brought forward the flowering of crops in the Corn Belt region, reducing the classification of areas considered to be in good or excellent condition. According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), this index dropped from 70,25% in the same period of 2025 to 64,25% this year.

Despite deteriorating crop conditions, projections remain positive. The WASDE report maintains expectations of a record harvest of 131,6 million tons, 1,2 million tons above the estimate released the previous month. Even so, August is considered a crucial period for determining the productive potential of US soybeans, keeping the weather at the center of market attention.

In Mato Grosso, the price of a sack of soybeans ended the week quoted at an average of R$ 122,88, a 0,99% increase compared to the previous week, supported by lower grain supply in the state. Conversely, soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 3,51%, pressured by the drop in Brent crude oil prices. Meanwhile, soybean oil registered a weekly increase of 0,91%, reaching an average of R$ 5.964,49 per ton, driven by external demand.

Crushing margin decreases

Imea also points out that the rise in soybean prices reduced the profitability of the crushing industry in July. The average price per sack reached R$ 116,74, the highest value recorded in 2026 so far, with an increase of 9,49% compared to June and 3,91% in the annual comparison.

As a consequence, the gross crushing margin fell 20,52% compared to the previous month, ending July at R$ 435,43 per ton. Although the prices of soybean meal and oil increased by 4,46% and 0,22%, respectively, the adjustments were not enough to offset the increase in the cost of raw materials.

According to the Institute, the lower availability of soybeans during the off-season should keep prices high in the state. If co-products do not follow this trend, the pressure on industry margins is likely to continue.

Demand for corn grows with the expansion of ethanol.

In the corn market, Imea revised upwards its demand forecast for the 2024/25 crop in Mato Grosso, now estimated at 54,98 million tons, a monthly increase of 0,85%. The main factor was the increased consumption by corn ethanol plants, which reduced the projection of ending stocks to 974,03 tons, a decrease of 32,14% compared to the previous estimate.

For the 2025/26 harvest, the Institute projects continued expansion in domestic consumption. Domestic demand was estimated at 22,10 million tons, a 9,12% increase over the previous cycle, also driven by the expansion of industrial capacity at ethanol plants.

Furthermore, lower supply in other states should increase interstate consumption to 11 million tons, a 6,18% increase. Conversely, exports were projected at 24,10 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1,09%, reflecting greater absorption of production by the domestic market.

In the market, corn futures on the CME Group fell 2,04% during the week, closing at US$4,49 per bushel, amid expectations of ample global supply favored by good crop conditions in the United States. On the B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange), the grain closed at R$69,71 per sack, a weekly decrease of 0,41%, following the progress of the harvest in Brazil.

Record production in Mato Grosso

Imea has consolidated the cultivated area of ​​corn for the 2025/26 crop in Mato Grosso at 7,43 million hectares, an increase of 2,41% over the previous season and 7,53% above the average of the last five years. This volume represents the second largest area in the Institute's historical series, second only to the 2022/23 crop.

Productivity was estimated at 128,67 sacks per hectare, practically stable compared to the previous survey. According to the Institute, the good weather conditions throughout the cycle, especially the favorable distribution of rainfall, sustained the high productive potential.

With this, state production was projected at 57,39 million tons, a 3,53% increase compared to the previous harvest and 23,85% above the average of the last five years, establishing a new record for Imea's historical series.