Corn exports in December reach the highest level for the month in the historical series

Corn sales for the foreign market reached a record for the month of December. In total, 6,41 million tons of cereal were exported - the best performance for the period in the historical series, even surpassing December 2015 with exports that reached 6,27 million tons. This is what the new edition of the AgroConab bulletin, published this Tuesday (24), by the National Supply Company (Conab) shows. The high rate of sales is repeated at the beginning of the year. In just the first 15 working days of January, shipments have already reached 4,2 million tons, according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services. The volume, still partial, already exceeds that recorded in the entire month of January 54 by 2022%.

“The high volume exported in December already includes 1,1 million tons destined for China, which improves the prospects for selling the cereal to the Asian continent this year”, ponders the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management from Conab, Allan Silveira. According to the publication, high sales in 2022 and the beginning of this year continue to put pressure on cereal prices in the domestic market due to lower levels of grain transit stocks. Furthermore, the cut in production for the 2022/2023 season, both in the first Brazilian harvest and in the estimated harvest in the United States, should contribute to scenarios of rising prices, especially in the first half of the year.

In the case of soybeans, the Conab bulletin also points to an upward trend in prices in the domestic market throughout 2023, influenced by the international oilseed market. The increase in international prices is mainly explained by the drought problems registered in Argentina. The expectation is that production in the 2022/23 harvest will vary between 35,5 and 41 million tons, according to the Cereals Exchange, and could record a new drop in the neighbor. 

"With the crop failure in Argentina, Brazil should continue with strong exports of soybean meal and oil in 2023. Furthermore, the possibility of increasing the percentage of biodiesel to diesel from 10% to 15% should keep crushing levels high The estimate for Brazilian soybean exports should also be high, thus supporting national prices”, highlights the Company's superintendent.

For wheat, the movement is opposite, with a drop in prices on the domestic market. The record production recorded in the country, with around 9,7 million tons harvested in 2022, impacts the greater supply of the product on the market, which leads to the recorded reduction. “However, the Argentine harvest failure and the exchange rate issue could minimize the downward pressure”, explains Conab market analyst, Flávia Starling.