Conab projects new grain record in 2025/26 harvest

The National Supply Company (CONAB)'s initial projections for the 2025/26 harvest indicate that grain production could reach 353,8 million tons, setting a new record for the state-owned company. Amid climate and economic challenges, the result is influenced by the increase in cultivated area, which is expected to rise from 81,74 million hectares in the last harvest to 84,24 million hectares in the current agricultural cycle. National average crop productivity is projected at 4.199 kilograms per hectare, a 2% reduction compared to the 2024/25 harvest. 

For Edegar Pretto, president of Conab, the data demonstrates farmers' confidence in continuing production. "In addition to available investments, the producers' expertise and the growing use of technology are reflected in the positive results, which reaffirm Brazil as a leading global supplier of food, fiber, and bioenergy," he emphasizes. 

For soybeans, the main crop grown in Brazil, Conab projects a further 3,6% increase in production, estimated at 177,67 million tons, compared to a harvest of 171,47 million tons in the 2024/25 cycle. Global demand for the oilseed continues to expand, driven by increased crushing for animal feed and increased biofuel production, both in Brazil and abroad. 

For cotton, the expectation for the 2025/26 harvest is a 3,5% growth in the planted area, driven by states with great potential for cultivation, such as Bahia, Piauí, Minas Gerais, and Tocantins. Given a projected fiber productivity of 1,89 tons per hectare, production is expected to grow 0,7%, reaching a record 4,09 million tons. 

In the case of corn, projections for the 2025/26 harvest indicate an increase in the area planted in the first and second harvests. This increase, according to Conab, is supported by expected growth in domestic consumption, demand for ethanol production, and the prospect of greater external demand due to a possible redirection of Asian purchases of North American corn to South American corn. Even with the expectation of a larger total planted area, production is forecast at 138,3 million tons, a 1% reduction compared to the 2024/25 harvest. 

As for rice, the outlook is more challenging for farmers. According to Conab, this situation is a result of increased domestic and international production in 2024/25, which generated a supply surplus and devaluation of the grain. Therefore, there is a tendency for a reduction in cultivated area in the main producing states. The cultivated area is expected to fall from 1,76 million hectares in the last harvest to 1,66 million hectares in the 2025/26 cycle. A 4,8% reduction in average national productivity is also expected. Even so, the expected yield is among the highest in historical records, with national production estimated at 11,5 million tons, ensuring domestic supply. 

In the case of beans, the 2025/26 harvest is expected to be close to stable. Combining the three legume harvests, Conab forecasts a planted area of ​​2,7 million hectares and an average national yield of 1.141 kilograms per hectare. As a result, production should be close to 3,1 million tons.