Coffee production is estimated at 54,74 million bags in the 2023 harvest

Brazilian coffee production in the 2023 harvest is expected to register growth of 7,5% compared to the previous cycle. This year, the harvest is estimated at 54,74 million bags processed compared to 50,92 million bags in 2022. The good result is expected even in a year with a negative biennial, as shown in the 2nd crop survey, released this Thursday- fair (18) by the National Supply Company (Conab). If the estimate for this year is compared with the volume harvested in the 2021 harvest, the last year of negative bienniality, the increase reaches 14,7%.

“As it is a perennial crop, the drought and frosts that occurred in 2021 influenced the productive performance of coffee crops last year, preventing the plants from reaching their productive potential. As the weather conditions in 2022 were better, it is possible to see a recovery in this production, especially in the Arabica coffee producing areas”, explains the president of Conab, Edegar Pretto.

This year, the expectation for Arabica coffee is that 37,93 million processed bags will be harvested, which represents 69,3% of coffee production in the country. If confirmed, the volume represents an increase of 15,9% over the 2022 harvest. “This increase is explained both by the 1,9% increase in the species' production area, combined with the 13,7% gain in the yield of crops, as seen in Minas Gerais, the largest producer of arabica”, highlights the Company's Harvest Monitoring Manager, Fabiano Vasconcellos.

As for conilon coffee, the outlook for the current season is for a production of 16,81 million bags, a reduction of 7,6% from the last harvest. The expected increase in the harvest in Rondônia, Bahia and Mato Grosso did not compensate for the estimated productivity losses in Espírito Santo, the largest conilon producer. “During the development of the grain in the state of Espírito Santo, adverse conditions were recorded, mainly in the initial phases of the crop cycle, impacting the performance of the coffee plantations”, explains Vasconcellos.

Area

According to the survey released by the Company, the total production area destined for coffee growing in the country in 2023, accounting for the two most cultivated species in the country (arabica and conilon), totals 1,87 million hectares, an increase of 1,7% over the area of ​​the previous harvest. The area in formation, that allocated by producers for the introduction of new plants or for carrying out cultural treatments, such as drastic pruning, is estimated at 375,5 thousand hectares in formation, a drop of 6% compared to the previous cycle.

Market

In the first four months of this year, Brazil exported 11,2 million 60 kg bags. The volume represents a drop of 20,3% compared to the 14,1 million bags exported in the same period of 2022. The reduction repeats the behavior recorded in 2021 and 2022 due to the restriction of domestic supply in the first months of the year, which limits the availability of coffee for sale to the foreign market. This scenario of restricted stocks at the beginning of 2023 was influenced by the climatic adversities that limited coffee production in Brazil in the last two years. “However, the good expectation for the current harvest, after improving weather conditions, favors the replenishment of stocks and could contribute to the recovery of product exports in the second half of the year”, analyzes Conab market analyst, Fábio Silva Costa.

For product prices, the trend is for prices to fall as the harvest progresses, although no significant reductions are expected, as low stocks support coffee prices and prevent significant drops in prices at this time.