Coffee exports fall 28% in July, says Rabobank

Brazil exported 2,7 million bags of coffee (60 kg) in July, a volume 5% higher than that recorded in June, but 28% lower than in July 2024. The data is included in the monthly update of the coffee market prepared by Rabobank Brasil, with analysis by Guilherme Morya, sector analyst for the commodity.

So far in 2025, exports total 22,2 million bags, a 21% drop compared to the same period last year. The United States remains the main destination, with 3,7 million bags shipped, despite an 18% decline compared to 2024. Starting in August, however, the bank projects a slowdown in American purchases due to the 50% tariff imposed on Brazilian coffee. The expectation is that the US industry will consume 30 to 90 days of stocks before resuming purchases, pending a possible renegotiation of the measure.

The exchange rate in August showed an improvement: 1,6 bags are needed to acquire one ton of 20-05-20 fertilizer, compared to 1,7 bags in July of this year and in August 2024. According to Rabobank, the appreciation of coffee offset the rise in fertilizer prices, especially urea.

Since the beginning of August, coffee prices have reversed the downward trend observed since March. As of August 13, Arabica prices had accumulated a 4% increase, and Conilon prices had increased 13% compared to July. This movement reflects low stocks, lower exports in some origins, and light to moderate frosts in producing regions such as the Cerrado Mineiro region, which raise concerns about the production potential of the next harvest.

The report also highlights geopolitical and regulatory factors as additional sources of uncertainty. Among them are disruptions in the Red Sea, the US tariff, and the European Union's Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). In 2024, the European bloc brought forward imports to comply with the new regulations, and the impact on prices in the second half of the year will depend on importers' adaptation. Coffee stocks in the EU are already gradually increasing.

For the bank, the 50% US tariff, in effect since August 6, is likely to increase short-term market volatility. Although the complete replacement of Brazilian coffee is unlikely, the measure reduces the product's competitiveness and could redirect global trade flows, with significant impacts on the entire coffee chain.