Coffee exports decline in June, says Rabobank

Brazil exported 2,6 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee in June 2025, according to a report released Tuesday (July 22) by Rabobank. The volume represents a 7% drop compared to May and a 12% drop compared to the same month last year. Despite the decline, the accumulated total for the 28/2024 harvest (July to June) reached 25 million bags - the third-highest volume in history, behind only the 45,6/2023 and 24/2020 seasons.

According to Guilherme Morya, a commodity analyst, the recent slowdown is in line with projections and reflects the impact of lower-than-expected previous harvests, as well as record export volumes at the beginning of the year. For the 2025 cycle, the country is expected to ship around 42 million bags.

The exchange rate worsens with falling prices and rising input prices

In addition to the decline in exports, coffee producers have also faced a worsening exchange rate, pressured by the appreciation of fertilizers and the depreciation of the bean. In July, 1,6 bags of coffee were needed to purchase one ton of 20-05-20 fertilizer—a 35% increase since January and a 10% increase compared to June. Even so, the index remains slightly more favorable than in the same period in 2024, when 1,7 bags were needed.

US tariff brings uncertainty to the market

Another point of concern for the sector is the 50% tariff announced by the United States on Brazilian coffee. Prior to the measure, Arabica and Conilon coffee prices in Brazil had accumulated declines of 25% and 47%, respectively, influenced by positive harvest expectations in Brazil and Vietnam.

The tariff announcement increased market volatility, with expectations of a shift in demand to other sources. So far, no contract cancellations or new purchases by the United States have been recorded, and the market remains cautious, awaiting further decisions. According to Morya, the long-term impacts will depend on the implementation and duration of the measure, which could influence global trade and affect producers, exporters, and consumers.

Harvest progresses, but rainfall and yield are concerns

Despite above-average rainfall in some regions in June—an atypical factor for the dry season—the harvest is progressing positively. Private estimates indicate that more than 50% of Arabica and more than 90% of Conilon have already been harvested.

However, there are reports of problems with Arabica coffee yields, especially when converting liters of cherry coffee into processed bags. According to Guilherme, this scenario was expected and reflects the lack of rainfall in February.