Climate impacts cause the São Paulo coffee harvest to shrink by 2,6%

The Economic Department of the FAESP System has just released the “Monitoring of the São Paulo Harvest 2022” bulletin, in its third edition of the year, for the month of September, which provides a summary of the survey of Brazilian and São Paulo coffee harvests in the period. The data are from the National Supply Company (Conab).

Starting with the highlights in the State of São Paulo, Conab's third estimate for the 2022 coffee harvest shows a drop of 530,8 thousand bags, compared to the last survey. The prospect is that 3,9 million bags of Arabica coffee will be harvested. The 2,6% drop, compared to the volume harvested in 2021, demonstrates the severity of the impacts of adverse climate events on coffee crops in São Paulo, given that the previous cycle was marked by negative bienniality, in which crop yields is generally much smaller.

This harvest was marked by critical periods of water scarcity, due to the La Niña climate phenomenon, and also by frosts in important producing regions, causing losses in the productive potential of crops. Furthermore, the long period of drought that occurred in the State of São Paulo in 2021, added to the high temperatures and episodes of frost at important moments for the development of crops, already contributed to the expectation that the productive potential characteristic of this region would not be achieved. cycle.

In terms of planted area, the total area with coffee in this harvest was maintained compared to 2021 (-0,22%) and is valued at 210 thousand hectares. Of this total, 199,8 thousand hectares are in production area (up 0,81%) and 10,25 thousand hectares are in formation (down 16,9%). The total number of coffee trees is estimated at 746,0 million (an increase of 9,8%), with 709,4 million trees in production (an increase of 11,5%) and 36,6 million trees in formation (a drop of 15,1%).

Regarding the national panorama, Conab's third survey for the 2022 harvest reduced the estimates for Brazilian coffee production by 3 million bags (from 53,43 million bags to an estimated 50,38 million bags). This volume, although it represents an increase of 5,6% compared to the results of the previous harvest, when compared to 2020, a year marked by a positive biennial as well as the current one, indicates a drop of 20,1% in the total volume of coffee produced.

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