Chinese demand boosts Brazilian soybeans, says Grão Direto

The intensification of the tariff war between the United States and China boosted Brazilian soybean exports, which closed the week with a rise of over 6% in prices, followed by corn, which also registered a strong appreciation on the Chicago Stock Exchange. The increase in Chinese demand, adverse weather conditions in the US and logistical bottlenecks at Brazilian ports are the main factors that have moved the market and defined the pace of trade in Brazil. The information is from this week's Grão Direto Specialist Analysis. Check it out: 

How did the soybean market behave? 

Tariff war: The intensification of the tariff war has redirected global demand to Brazil. This has increased the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans and boosted prices by more than 6% in the week.

USDA Report: The supply and demand report did not bring any news for soybean production, but pointed to a 0,79% increase in final stocks of the grain in Brazil, however, without significant impacts.

Argentina: Argentina's largest crusher halted operations last week over rumors of debt, while persistent rains delayed the grain harvest.

In Chicago, the May 2025 soybean contract closed at US$10,44 per bushel, up 6,86% on the week. The March 2026 contract also rose, closing at US$10,39 per bushel (+3,38%). The dollar rose 0,51%, closing the week at R$5,87. In the physical market, soybeans followed the external scenario and showed an upward trend, with appreciation in several regions throughout the week.

What to expect from the soybean market? 

Chinese demand: This was the week with the largest number of soybean ships purchased by China in history. As of Thursday night (Beijing time), 52 ships had been closed — only 3 or 4 originated from Argentina, and the rest, all from Brazil, related to the current harvest. On the producer side, many are taking advantage of the moment to sell and raise cash, given high interest rates, restricted credit and approaching maturities. For those who still have soybeans available, the market signals an opportune window for trading.

American harvest: Climate models point to the formation of a La Niña, a phenomenon that usually brings a cooler and rainier spring in the US, especially in the Midwest, the central region of corn and soybean production. This scenario could delay the start of planting and increase risks for the US harvest, which has already been reflected in upward pressure on futures contracts in Chicago.

Logistics: The growth in Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans, driven by the tariffs imposed by Trump, raises concerns about the logistical capacity of national ports. With around 50 vessels traded in the last week, the port system, which was already operating at 91,30% of its capacity (above the safe limit of 85%), may face operational bottlenecks. Internally, the drop in the price of oil should ease the cost of road transport in the coming weeks, but port bottlenecks remain a significant risk to the flow.

After a week of strong volatility, the trend for the coming days is for a more stable market, with possible price corrections after recent gains. Even so, the scenario should remain favorable for sales, with good opportunities for producers looking to close deals.

How did the corn market behave? 

USDA Report: No significant variations were noted regarding corn in Brazil, however, in the global scenario, production expectations were raised by almost 1%, exports by more than 2% and final stocks fell by 1,29%.

European tariffs: The market reacted to the European Union's decision to impose 25% tariffs on US corn starting April 15. The measure could reduce the American flow to Europe and favor Brazilian corn in exports.

Climate conditions: After planting delays in some regions due to irregular rainfall, Inmet forecasts good rainy conditions in the Matopiba region for the coming days.

In Chicago, corn closed the week at US$4,89 per bushel, up 6,3%. In Brazil, on the B3, the May 2025 corn contract also appreciated, closing at R$79,33 per bag (+3,85%). However, in the physical market, corn prices fell, contrary to the movement of futures contracts, in the face of still weak domestic demand.

What to expect from the corn market?

Domestic market: According to Imea, by the first week of April, approximately 42% of the new corn crop had already been sold, representing significant progress compared to the same period last year. Total production is estimated at just over 47 million tons, slightly below the previous harvest, with stable average productivity, but still lower than last season. This year, the domestic market stands out as the preferred destination, driven by high demand from ethanol plants and more attractive prices, reducing producers' interest in exporting and retaining the grain. This leaves it up to the domestic market to determine the direction of prices.

Climate conditions: Climate models indicate a strong transition to the La Niña phenomenon, which requires extra attention for the second corn crop. Until mid-April, reasonable rainfall is still expected in the Central-West, but from May onwards, the risk of reduced rainfall and falling temperatures increases, especially in the south of Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná. In these regions, crops will be in a critical phase of development, and the lack of water could compromise productivity.

With the domestic market supporting demand, last week was marked by an increase in the stock market, but with declines in the physical market, which remained sluggish. For this week, the expectation is that this adjustment trend will continue, with the physical market still under pressure, reflecting the effects of the volatility of the previous week.