China reduces MAP and DAP exports, putting pressure on the market.

Chinese exports of MAP (monoammonium phosphate) and DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizers have fallen to their lowest levels in recent years, according to StoneX, a global financial services company. Between January and September 2025, China shipped 3,7 million tons of these phosphates, a volume 23% lower than that recorded in the same period of 2024. The decline occurs at a time of stricter control over foreign sales by the Chinese government, a common practice before the domestic peak season, but which is proving more restrictive in this cycle. 

According to market intelligence analyst Tomás Pernías, the data confirms that the Asian country is more aggressively reducing its exports. "China already tends to limit exports to protect domestic supply, but in 2025 the intensity of the restrictions surpasses that of previous years, which has increased the concern of international buyers," he states. 

The country's importance to global trade reinforces the warning. Estimates indicate that, in 2024, approximately 16% of global exports of MAP, a fertilizer also widely used in Brazil, originated in China. Alongside Morocco, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, the country is among the main international suppliers. The reduction in its share creates additional tensions for importers, especially those most dependent on these flows. 

In the Brazilian case, the impact is indirect, since only 4% of the MAP imported by Brazil in 2024 originated from China, with the majority coming from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco. Even so, when China restricts exports, global demand shifts to other suppliers, increasing competition for cargo and raising competitiveness among markets. 

“When Chinese volumes disappear from the market, buyers from different regions start looking for the same suppliers. This sudden change puts pressure on prices and reduces the predictability of negotiations,” Pernías notes. 

Brazil is also experiencing a period of lower MAP imports in 2025, reflecting high raw material prices and unfavorable terms of trade in recent months. In this scenario, Brazilian producers have increased purchases of SSP (single superphosphate), a less concentrated fertilizer that, at various times, has offered a better cost-benefit ratio.