Commercialization of Brazilian soybeans 2023-24 harvest reaches 41,6% of estimated production

A survey carried out by Datagro Grãos shows that, until April 5th, Brazilian sales of the 2023/24 soybean harvest reached 41,6% of expected production, below the 43,0% observed in the same period last year, in addition to a far cry from the 71,5% record for the 2019/20 harvest and the 57,6% average for the last five years. 

However, the monthly increase was 8,4 percentage points, well above the 2,2 pp recorded in the previous month, despite falling short of the 9,2 pp in 2023 and the 9,1 pp of the normal average. “The better pace of business was within our expectations, as price appreciation was confirmed, in addition to absorbing the leverage of resources for the purchase of inputs for the winter harvest and the 2024/25 harvest”, comments Flávio Roberto de França Junior , economist and content leader at Datagro Grãos. 

Considering the current production estimate at 146,3 million tons, Brazilian producers have negotiated, until the date analyzed, 60,9 million tons of soybeans. In the same period last year, this negotiated production volume was higher in relative and absolute terms, reaching 68,9 million tons. 

2024/25 Harvest 

Negotiations for the 2024/25 harvest also went a little better in the period analyzed. The Datagro Grãos survey points to 2,7% of the expected committed production, a monthly jump of 1,4 pp, above the 0,9 pp at a similar time last year, but below the 3,1 pp of the multi-annual average. Therefore, the flow is below the 4,3% committed in 2023 and very far from the 19,9% ​​of the 2020/21 harvest record, in addition to below the 9,8% of the multi-annual average. According to the initial exercise carried out by the consultancy – the planting intention comes out in July –, the projection for the 2023/4 harvest is 160,5 million tons, which would represent a growth of 9% compared to the current season. 

Corn 

Negotiations for the 2023/24 summer corn harvest in the Center-South of Brazil also moved more quickly in the period analyzed. The Datagro Grãos survey points to 19,9% ​​of the expected committed production, a monthly jump of 8,4 pp, above the 5,4 pp indicated in the previous survey, but below the 16,0 pp at a similar time last year and of the 14,7 pp of the multi-annual average. Therefore, sales are below the 25,5% committed at the same time in 2023 and far from the 36,0% normal average. 

“In absolute numbers, we have sales of 3,6 million tons, from a harvest of 18,2 million tons. In 2023, at the same time, we had sales of 5,1 million tons,” he commented. 

Commercialization of the region's 2024 winter harvest, estimated at 81,9 million tons, reached 19,5%, compared to 14,4% in the previous survey, 22,4% on the same date last year and a multi-annual average of 39,2 .XNUMX%.