Brazilian Coffee Harvest in 2019 has a reduced volume of 17,4% compared to 2018

The total production of Brazilian Coffees for this 2019 harvest was estimated at 50,92 million 60kg bags, of which 36,98 million are Arabica coffee and 13,94 million Conilon coffee. This estimate implies a 17,4% reduction in the 2019 harvest compared to 2018, which was 61,66 million bags. Of this physical volume, 47,48 million bags were of Arabica coffee and 14,17 million of Conilon coffee. Thus, it appears that, in a comparison of the 2019 harvest with that of 2018, the production of arabica decreased by 22,1% and conilon by 1,7%.

In this context, if a ranking of the biggest decreases in percentage terms of the physical volumes of the aforementioned crops, of Arabica and conilon coffee, is established, it can be seen that the state of Bahia comes out in first place with a 33,3% reduction, as Its production in 2018 was 4,55 million bags and that of 2019 was estimated at 3,04 million bags. In second place is the state of São Paulo with a 26,3% reduction, whose production was 6,30 million bags in 2018, and, in 2019, it is estimated at 4,64 million bags.

Following the ranking comes Minas Gerais, in third, with a 20,7% reduction, as its 2018 harvest was 33,36 million bags and the 2019 harvest is expected to be 26,44 million bags. In fourth place, the state of Espírito Santo, which is expected to see a decrease in its production of 7% (13,74 million bags in 2018 and 12,78 million bags in 2019). Finally, in fifth, Rio de Janeiro, which had a production of 2018 thousand bags in 346 and, considering that in 2019 it will be 328 thousand bags, its reduction will be 5,2%.

The compiled statistical data that made it possible to carry out this comparative analysis of the 2018 harvests with that of 2019 were obtained from the 2st Survey of the 2019 Coffee Crop, from the National Supply Company - Conab, which is available in full on Coffee Observatory of the Café Research Consortium, coordinated by Embrapa Coffee, and also in the Safra Brasileira de Café section, on the Conab.

In this Survey of the 2019 harvest, Conab highlights that in almost all Brazilian Coffee producing regions there will be an influence, especially in Arabica coffee, of the effect of negative bienniality, a phenomenon that alternates lower production in one harvest with higher production in the following year. Furthermore, it also highlights that the incidence of high temperatures, linked to the lack of rain in an important period of the cycle (summer season recorded in several coffee producing regions between December 2018 and January 2019) meant that average yield estimates were still minors.

And, more than that, according to Conab, regarding the area under production, the trend is also towards a reduction in relation to the last harvest, which could decrease by 1,1%, and reach 1,84 million hectares. Thus, taking all these factors together, Arabica coffee, as mentioned, will have an estimated production of 36,98 million bags this year, representing a reduction compared to the volume produced in the last harvest of 22,1%. And, conilon, as production estimated by Conab was 13,94 million bags, also signals a decrease of 1,7%.