Brazilian coffee harvest 2023-24 is still uncertain, says CNC

The 2023/2024 coffee harvest in Brazil, the world's leading producer, faces significant challenges and uncertainties. Based on the latest information from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the harvest is expected to reach approximately 58,9 million 60kg bags. This forecast is supported by the projected increase in production of both Arabica coffee, with an estimated 40,9 million bags, and camphor coffee, expected to reach 18 million bags.

However, the National Coffee Council (CNC), in its recent December considerations, highlights the uncertainty surrounding the harvest. Although we saw rain during the fruit filling period, the constancy and volume of this precipitation remains a cause for concern. Unstable weather forecasts add an element of uncertainty, making it difficult to make accurate projections for production performance.

In its latest bulletin for 2023, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) warns of the impact of climate on global coffee production. The drop in world stocks in 2023 was 4,9 million bags, highlighting the challenges faced in different producing regions, says the entity.

The coffee market also faces challenges related to global financial difficulties and instabilities resulting from conflicts and wars, as pointed out by the CNC. This directly affects consumption projections. Both the American treasury and the European treasury face problems, reflecting global uncertainties.

The National Coffee Council reiterates that in Brazil, faced with these challenges, the production perspective must be cautious. “The estimated production of 58,9 million bags (IBGE) is within what we imagine to be reality. However, exceeding this limit is very unlikely. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), depending on climate forecasts, according to XAIDA (eXtreme events: Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution), a consortium made up of 16 climate research institutions in Europe, there should be a possible worsening of El Niño in February and March. Faced with the present uncertainties, we remain realistic”, explains Silas Brasileiro, president of the CNC.

Therefore, the 2023/2024 coffee harvest in Brazil faces a unique combination of factors, from unpredictable weather conditions to global economic challenges. Producers must be attentive to each development, seeking to adapt strategies to deal with uncertainties and guarantee the sustainability of this essential sector for the Brazilian and global economy.

The CNC will also await the position of the next harvest survey by the National Supply Company (Conab), on January 18, which will provide more information on the future coffee scenario in Brazil.